Established media continue to parrot their propaganda of a "blue wave."
The editors of the New York Times published this claim by their propaganda writers, Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns (see: Democrats Capture Control of House; G.O.P. Holds Senate - The New York Times):
Democrats harnessed voter fury toward President Trump to win control of the House and capture pivotal governorships Tuesday night as liberals and moderates banded together to deliver a forceful rebuke of Mr. Trump, even as Republicans held on to their Senate majority by claiming a handful of conservative-leaning seats.Unless Martin and Burns can produce a post-election scientific poll, which respondents aknowledge "fury," their claim is #FakeNews. Further, it is impossible for anyone to "deliver a forceful rebuke" to the President.
Rebuke is an Anglo-French word that entered English in the 1300s. The word means to reprimand, reprove; chide, scold. To do such requires a position of power, authority. Voters lack such power against President Trump during mid-term elections.
Another propagandist for #FakeNews New York Times, Sheryl Gay Stolberg, wrote, "... voters in urban and suburban districts across the country sent the White House a clear message: They want a check on the president," (see: Two Years After Trump’s Victory, Voters Erect an Impediment to His Power - The New York Times).
Again, without a scientific poll that can capture that exact sentiment and that can be projected to the universe of voters, Stolberg has done little more than engage in propaganda.
So Truly What Happened on Election Day?
So what happened? What can anyone conclude from the 2018 Mid-Term Elections results? Well, what are the facts?
Luckily for you, I have crunched the numbers. Having done so for you, you can get the true story that no one else will tell you.
Before we delve into the numbers and yes, delve is the word that escapes all those dummies who parrot the phrase "deep dive" of late, you should know a few important facts.
First, according to Ballotpedia, a total of 54 representatives did not seek re-election to their U.S. House districts. Of that 54, 36, or two of every three empty seats, had been held by Republican members of the U.S. House.
Drew Desilver of the Pew Research Center claimed this to be the most House members choosing not to run for re-election than at any time in the past quarter-century including a record number of Republicans (see: Near-record number of House members not seeking re-election in 2018).
And Now the Numbers
The big news, of course, is the capturing of control of the House of Representatives by the Democratic Party. From the 115th Congress to the forthcoming 116th, the Dems won 30 House seats.
In spite of endless blue wave propaganda, no blue wave happened. Even with 30 more Dems sitting in the upcoming House, a mere two percent separates the winners of the control of the House of Representatives, the Democrats, from the Republicans, 51% to 49%. That two percent margin translates to a scant 11 seats.
Incumbents Always Do Well
Incumbents did well, regardless of party. Nearly eight of every 10 incumbents will return to D.C. Of the 334 incumbents who will return to D.C., 52% of them are Republicans while 48% are Democrats.
Fresh Faces Trump Challengers to Incumbents
Elections where both the Democratic Party and Republican Party candidates were first-timers and thus unknown voters, first-timers did thrice as well as challengers who ran against incumbents.
As with incumbents, GOPher fresh faces edged Dem fresh faces, 51% to 49%.
What Should Have the Democratic Party Masterminds Fretting?
No doubt, Democratic Party operatives are floating high in the clouds after yesterday. They can point to 24 victories where they put challengers who beat incumbent Republicans.
However, of those 24 victories, 15 happened in districts of states where voters voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. That is 62.5% of their challenger victories happened in Democratic Party states. Likely, those victories reflect demographics changes rather than supposed dissatisfaction with President Trump.
Even more troubling for Dems is this. While 30.6% of New Dems (challengers and fresh faces) won seats in Trump states, 38.5% of New GOP won seats in Hillary (Democratic Party) states.
That said, the Dems in effect flipped Iowa solidly for the 2020 elections while pushing Arizona toward leaning Democratic Party. That could translate into +17 electoral college votes. Meanwhile, the GOP have flipped Wisconsin into a solid GOP state, in spite of losing the governorship. That could translate to +10 electoral votes in 2020.
Even more troubling for Dems is this. While 30.6% of New Dems (challengers and fresh faces) won seats in Trump states, 38.5% of New GOP won seats in Hillary (Democratic Party) states.
That said, the Dems in effect flipped Iowa solidly for the 2020 elections while pushing Arizona toward leaning Democratic Party. That could translate into +17 electoral college votes. Meanwhile, the GOP have flipped Wisconsin into a solid GOP state, in spite of losing the governorship. That could translate to +10 electoral votes in 2020.
Here is a breakdown of the GOP and Dems by state and by whether the winner is an incumbent, challenger or a new face.
Gab It
