President Donald J. Trump, the 45th President of the United States kicked off the 2024 presidential election race by announcing his candidacy for the Republican nomination. His announcement came as no surprise.
The former president faces a big challenge, perhaps a far bigger one than defeating the first woman presidential candidate in what was supposed to be an historic win for her and feminist womanhood everywhere.
Once again, Trump will be running against the Establishment—the billionaire class of globalists along with their controlled media, the major pension systems of states' governments and their media, as well as with countless grievance groups and the leftist-progressive blogosphere.
Safe States
Here is what the safe situation looks like for whomever ends up being the nominees for the Democrats and the Republicans. As you can see, the Democrats have a slight edge, five electoral votes.
These states reflect a margin of victory of at least 175,000 in 2020. It is likely too hard to flip 175,000 to vote from their usual voting.
Safe States Plus Tougher to Flip States
As you can see here, once tougher-to-flip states get added to their respective sides, the Democrat candidate opens up a bigger lead, sixteen electoral votes, up from five. That is a better than three times gain.
Safe, Tougher-to-Flip Plus Less Likely
As you can see, the Democratic Party candidate has a big advantage once the next layer of states gets added, the states less likely to flip, but which are possible.
The Republican candidate must takeaway from the Democrat both North Carolina and Georgia to have a shot.
Trump won North Carolina by 74,583 votes in 2022 while he lost Georgia by 11,779 votes. Keep an eye on the Walker versus Warnock run-off for the Senate seat still up for grabs in 2022.
Vulnerable States
Democratic Party Candidate Won States 2020
Republican Party Candidate Won States 2020
The Winning Strategies
For the Democratic Party candidate, it is simple. Win Georgia and any of the vulnerable GOP states and the presidency remains with the Dems. The Dem candidate should spend his or her time in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Maine 2, Nebraska 2.
For the Republican Party candidate, winning Georgia and North Carolina must happen. However, winning both is not enough. The candidate should strive to win the most vulnerable states of Arizona and Wisconsin. After doing that, victory road will come with a few options, the easiest being vulnerable Nevada.
The Republican candidate ought to learn about the most pressing issues in these states and then pledge signing into law, a government to solve the problem.
The days of talking big about things that affects all Americans nationwide are long over. The way to win is to localize the campaign only in the handful of states that will decide 2024.
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