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Wednesday, May 24, 2017

THE MAY 2017 EXISTING HOUSE SALES REPORT LOOKS GOOD. THE PERPETUAL PESSIMISTS HAVE IT OH SO WRONG.

A well-known financial blogger, at least he once was well-known during the early stages of the 2008 crisis and before he moved his blog to another platform under a vanity domain name, tried to make hay out of the recently released Existing House Sales report from the National Association of Realtors.

First, the data set is sparse. As it is, Americans are only now coming out of the Greenspan-Bernanke Greatest Depression. So those figures only reveal action at a bottom.

According to the Existing Home Sales NAR release of May 24, 2017:


Total existing-home sales ... dipped 2.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million in April from a downwardly revised 5.70 million in March. 

The NAR staff blamed a lack of supply:

Stubbornly low supply levels held down existing-home sales in April and also pushed the median number of days a home was on the market to a new low of 29 days, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

That once well-known blogger took up the silly idea of a lack of supply and goes one further with a lack of affordable supply:

There is not a supply shortage. Rather, there is a supply shortage of homes people can afford at which buyers are willing to sell. If homes were priced to sell, more homes would sell.
It is folly for anyone to draw conclusions from it without having the keen insight into context. As I have written many times on the True Dollar Journal, without context, all claims about reality using data are misleading.

So here is context so that you can understand what has happened with existing sales.




As you can see in the chart above, from July 2016 to January 2017, the ratio of working age to existing house sales rose. Likely, uncertainty over the presidential election had much to do with it.

As you can see, from the election to December, the ratio fell -4.4% before sharply swinging up during the Holiday season of December and January.




From February 2017 through March 2017, the ratio fell. A falling ratio is good as it shows there are far fewer prime working Americans in need of buying an existing house for sale.

The current uptick in April is a scant 1.3% relative to the large falls of the past two months (-29.9%) and three months (29%).







In True Dollars™, both the median price and the average price had fallen from July 2016 until January 2016. Again, likely that happened owing to heightened uncertainty over the presidential election outcome.

Since January prices have been on the rise in True Dollars™. The median price has risen a bit more than 5% over the last three months. The average prices has risen a bit more than 4% over the last three months.

So what could be driving rise in median and average prices? Well, as most house sales are paid by mortgage borrowings, it can mean only that existing house buying Americans have gained buying power through increased credit being offered to them.

This data set needs to become much larger with data points taken through the upcoming true expansion of the economy and the next contraction that will follow it.



The New House Sales is a much larger data set. As you can see, the picture has become so much better than the 2008 crash and the Greenspan-Bernanke Greatest Depression that happened between 2008 and 2016.


For the report, the NAR defines existing-home sales as closing transactions of single-family, townhomes, condominiums and cooperative homes.

Also, you can always find these charts up in the menus above. You should look up in the menus for many fantastic charts that reveal the clearest picture of the U.S. economy as well as foreign economies. The True Dollars Analysis System™ can be found only on your True Dollar Journal.

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Tuesday, May 23, 2017

TRUE GDP COMES TO YOUR FAVORITE COUNTRY!

The publisher of the True Dollar Journal releases for you, GDP measured in True Dollars™ for selected countries.

Simply, head to the menu under World and then select the country and the GDP entry.

For many, the TRUE GDP charts will open their eyes to the #FakeNews propaganda foisted upon them by their governments and their political establishment's controlled media.

NOTICE: If you can not find your country but have GDP data for you country in your local bank note domination and if you have that data in CSV file format accessible at a public URL on the Internet, the True Dollar Journal can present the True Dollar version of your data.

Also, the pages for these countries will be up within the next day or so: Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden.




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Monday, May 22, 2017

MORE GOOD NEWS ABOUT THE U.S. ECONOMY in 2017

Yesterday, in  IS THE ECONOMY NEAR TAKE-OFF? SOME SIGNS SAY YES, I brought to you some of the key metrics that reveal the nine-year economic depression of the U.S. economy has come to an end at long last.

Today, I show you another confirming chart — Commercial Clearings of the Federal Reserve's automated clearing system. Back on Friday, November 7, 2014, I revealed to the world the key correlation between commercial transactions and GDP in THE SECRETS OF AUTOMATED CLEARINGS, GDP AND THE ECONOMY. RECOVERY? WHEN?



As you can see, the decline has come to an end for in commercial clearings as measured in True Dollars™. True Dollars are the only true, invariant standard by which to measure dollar-denominated measures under a fiduciary monetary system.



As you can see, when measured in True Dollars, commercial clearings reveal much about the state of the economy.

If only the executives at the Federal Reserve Automated Clearing House would speed up their release of their data to at least monthly, then all could know within a month, the true state of the economy as measured in True Dollars.

Notice: You can look at the always-updated interactive versions of these charts by accessing the menus above.
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Sunday, May 21, 2017

IS THE ECONOMY NEAR TAKE-OFF? SOME SIGNS SAY YES.

Back March 15, 2009, when asked point blank dopey one-time central banker Ben Bernanke told a CBS 60 Minutes #FakeNews reporter these points: 1) the recession would end in 2009; 2) the economy would return to growth in 2010. Bernanke even agreed with the #FakeNews reporter that he saw "greenshoots."

Of course none of that ever happened. The economy is years from recovering all-time high GDP.

That said, there are at last signs that show the economy is nearing normalcy. The Prime Age to Cars and Truck Sales ratio shows the markets for cars and trucks has approached normalcy.

But first, you can see the interactive, always updated versions of these chart screenshots by clicking on the menus above.



And inventory to sales for wholesalers looks good.




Residential reality reveals that we're still away from from normalcy.






And lastly, labor markets seem restored.



Yet, we are a long way away from a robust economy that pulls ever more Americans into working.



And True GDP is way down from the peak.



It looks like Americans are awakening from the Obama nightmare and looking toward good times.



You can watch dopey Ben Bernanke blather away about the economy from the March 15, 2009 interview:








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Thursday, May 18, 2017

THE GREENSPAN-BERNANKE GREATEST DEPRESSION CONTINUES AND SO DO THE LIES IN THE AGE OF PROPAGANDA.


It puzzles me how otherwise smart individuals can be so fooled. Nearly everyone who works in financial media believe a recovery happened during the Obama years. No recovery ever happened. I have shown as much in Q1 2017 GDP IN TRUE DOLLARS™ SHOWS THE GREATEST DEPRESSION IS STILL ON. THE OBAMA PRESIDENCY WAS AMONG THE WORST, PERHAPS ALL-TIME.

Instead, Americans have suffered through the Greenspan-Bernanke Greatest Depression, which came after the crash of the Greenspan-Bernanke Great Inflation, the greatest credit bubble in the history of mankind.

Elsewhere, I have shown how the CPI never could measure inflation and how Real GDP is mere propaganda. Real GDP is fake statistics. So rather than cover the same ground, you should read these works if you have yet to do so:


Measurement is one of those great inventions of mankind, which has advanced mankind. Without accurate measurement, few could have achieved anything and mankind simply would not have advanced. Key to measuring is having an invariant standard. 

It is impossible to have a variable standard. Yet, that is what an implicit price deflator is. It's basis is a past inflated measure. Could you ever measure the distance of something with an always increasing yardstick?

In current dollars (US$), construction spending looks up. That is the illusion Fed Res bankers and politicians would like you to believe. In True Dollars™, the only invariant yardstick known to mankind, construction spending is down and continues to be down.




As you can see above, peak construction spending happened near peak GDP, which happened in Q4 2007. Back between 2005 and 2007, I watched thousands of farmland acres get turned into sprawling planned neighborhoods within spans of six to twelve months from the time ground had been broken. That is what boom times look like.

Today, I see almost no construction. This is what hard times look like.

You should know that always you can see the latest of these charts from the menu above.

Politicians and financial media reporters have told you many times that Obama turned around the economy and there was a full recovery. That simply is not true. Instead, Federal Reserve bankers merely papered over a declining economy through the process of quantitative easing. 

If you believe politicians and financial media reporters, spending today is practically the same as the all-time high. If that were so, shops would be full, restaurants would be full, wages would be rising by leaps and bounds.


See these:




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BITCOIN RIPS INTO DIZZYING HEIGHTS. SPECULATIVE FEVER IS ON


After hitting a low on January 15, 2015, Bitcoin speculators have been on a tear. As you can see, Bitcoin now trades in dizzying heights, both in U.S. dollars and in True Dollars™ from its low of T$16.26.

In True Dollars, Bitcoin is up 57.38% in the last one quarter, 112.75% over the last six months and 214.34% over the last year!




While another Bitcoin crash could happen, as evermore of the world connect to the Internet, the number of nefarious ones in need of the means to sell heroin, evade taxes, pay for murders-for-hire and the like will increase.

Any pull back of at least 50% could make Bitcoin an attractive buy. The United States and European countries have yet to pull out of economic great depressions (see: Q1 2017 GDP IN TRUE DOLLARS™ SHOWS THE GREATEST DEPRESSION IS STILL ON. THE OBAMA PRESIDENCY WAS AMONG THE WORST, PERHAPS ALL-TIME). However, sooner rather than later, the advance in the U.S. economy should begin.

That means more discretionary income will fill the pockets of Americans and for some, they shall have the means to buy drugs. Bitcoin holders will be the beneficiaries of a rising economy.

You can always see the latest Bitcoin charts from the commodities menu.


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Sunday, May 14, 2017

NATURAL GAS. A BIG WINNER YEAR-OVER-YEAR

In True Dollars™, which is the only accurate measure of buying power, the spot price of natural gas is up slightly over 50% year-over-year.

Likely the cause of this great increase is the fall off of oil production owing to the economy suffering from the greatest depression (see: Q1 2017 GDP IN TRUE DOLLARS™ SHOWS THE GREATEST DEPRESSION IS STILL ON. THE OBAMA PRESIDENCY WAS AMONG THE WORST, PERHAPS ALL-TIME.) combined with increasing application of clean- burning natural gas.

You can get these charts from the Commodities menu above. So there is no need to bookmark this page. Merely keep the True Dollar Journal as your go-to source.




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Tuesday, May 9, 2017

GET YOUR FAVORITE STOCK INDICES QUOTED IN TRUE DOLLARS EXCLUSIVELY AT THE TRUE JOURNAL. BREAK FREE OF BEING FOOLED BY INFLATION AND FLOATING EXCHANGE RATES.


The True Dollar Journal now covers the stock indices of nearly 85% of world GDP in True Dollars™.

With floating exchange rates, many believe their stock markets are up when often their markets are down or flat. How can this be?

Reporters of the Established media report prices in the current banknotes. They never account for cash accretion — the ever growing sum of cash in circulation.  

The only way to know if your portfolio is up truly is to have your portfolio holdings quoted in by an invariant measure, a permanent yard stick. That is what measuring in True Dollars does for you and that is what the True Dollar Journal is all about. 

After the close of U.S. markets on Friday, the True Dollar Journal will give you updated charts quoted in True Dollars along with growth and decline measures.

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