Tuesday, October 25, 2016


First, you should know that national polls are bogus. You cannot rely on national polls at all precisely because those polls are unscientific.  See my work WHY EVERY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION POLL FOR 2016 YOU SHALL SEE OR HEAR WILL BE WRONG, which explains why.

Perhaps the biggest news that has hit with 13 days to go isn't all of the Hillary Clinton scandals, but Michael Moore coming out to say he is voting for Trump. Watch the video below where Moore says, "The enemy of my enemy (Trump) is who I am voting for."

Back on Wednesday, May 18, 2016, I published my first effort predicting the 2016 Presidential Race. With my best guess being 299 to 239 in favor of Trump.

I also showed a map where I called the states on that date. That map had Trump winning 276 to 262.

In that work, I showed the battleground states would be these:  Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, Ohio and Georgia. In my notes, I had Arizona as a battleground state, but I failed to mention so.

Since the rise of a rather creepy cultist Mormon Evan McMullin in Utah, Utah has come into play.

RealClear Politics has released relevant state polls over the last few days.

The states likely most in play are Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Arizona and Nevada.

Election night could look more like the above. If the globalist, open-borders, anti-working-class candidate Hillary Clinton takes Nevada, Colorado and Arizona, it will not matter how Floridians, North Carolinians and Pennsylvanians vote. A sweep of the states would have Clinton winning 334 to 204.

However, if Trump's message of bad trade deals, bad economy and threats to the second amendment prevail, Trump will rise victorious.

Trump must focus on Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Nevada. Hillary should forget the western states of  Nevada, Arizona and Colorado. She should focus solely on Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

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Friday, October 21, 2016


A news report from an Oklahoma TV station reveals a unionized public educator engaging in racist propaganda against the students attending his class.

Yet, what of reality? What is the reality of race?

The world is at least 71% colored. Whites are minorities worldwide.

Yet a small band of whites, descendants of North Sea Germanics, built the modern world and lifted billions of colored people from bare subsistence poverty. Coloreds worldwide would still be savages if not for whites and specifically English-speaking Protestant Christian descendants of North Sea Germanics.

Worldwide, to live not as a white man is to live as a savage. Even the Japanese adopted the ways of the Protestant North Sea Germanic descendant white man back beginning in the late 1800s.

Everything enjoyed and copied by the contemporary colored world came into existence by the minds of white men either directly or through the devices invented by white men as used since the 1490s — credit and banking, futures markets, means of transportation, means of telecommunication.

Coloreds have given mankind little but war, terrorism, the threat of war, the perpetuation of disease-spreading. These are not statements of racism. However, these are racial realities.

China: 1.357 billion
India: 1.252 billion
Africa: 1.216 billion
Southeast Asia: 618.0 million
South America: 422.5 million
Central America:  42.7 million
Middle East:  218 million
Pacific Islanders: 2.3 million
Coloreds in the USA (all colored races): 118,906,480
5.24741 billion

World Population  7.4 billion

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Thursday, October 20, 2016


So today, Obama tried to disavow his failure of his namesake legislation, Obamacare. No matter what, Obama owns the turd that is Obamacare. 

Of course, Obama tried hard and succeeded to get Americans to eat the turd sandwich known as Obamacare. Obama, huckster witch doctor, lied to Americans when it counted most — "If you like your plan, you can keep your plan. If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor."

The 99th rate pseudo-intellect Obama is still too stupid to understand how true insurance works and how markets work.

Later in the day, Arnie crossed my path. Arnie said,

"The Democrats gave in to the Republicans to allow their insurance company buddies to get a piece of the action. Should have been Medicare for All. How about getting insurance companies out of the scheme, as they add nothing and take a cut.
"Nobody in countries that have a government health care system goes bankrupt because of medical treatment. Had an uncle on ex-wife's side in Canada who got 3 years of cancer treatment in BC, got moved to Ontario to be near the family for hospice care treatment for another year. His bill? $0. Insurance companies' job seems to be to think of all they can to deny care." 

Poor Arnie. Arnie should know that medicine is a product like cars, food, movie showings and the like. And like any product, without incentive, the producers of products disappear. Insurers are an indispensable participant in any economy. So I told Arnie a story:

A Mohammadan, a Jew and a Hindu are neighbors. The Mohammadan hates the Jew and the Hindu as all Mohammadans do. The Jew does not like the Mohammadan and thinks the Hindu is heathen. 
A wise Christian comes along and reminds the three hating enemies of the fire the other day that almost wiped out all three houses of their cousins, another Mohammadan, another Jew and another Hindu all of whom live next door to each other with only one house burning down. 
The Christian shows that sometime later, one of their houses will be burned in an accident. The Christian tells them he will pay out if a fire burns one of their houses, but only if all three pay a fee to the Christian every year. The fee is so much smaller than the price of building a new house. 
The Christian undertakes this activity and foregoes doing what he used to do because the fees collected from the hating Mohammadan, hating Jew and hating Hindu covers his expenses to collect the fee, and his time to convince each of them to buy the insurance from him, time which he could have used to paint a picture, build a house and so forth.
Without the Christian, the hating Mohammadan, hating Jew and hating Hindu would not talk to each other. They would continue to hate and one of them would lose a house.

If Arnie were the only one on earth, who would make his medicine? Who would pay for his medicine?

If you say Arnie himself, then when Arnie makes his own medicine, can Arnie also gather food or fuel for warmth?

If Arnie and another were the only ones on earth, who would make Arnie's medicine? Would Arnie try to convince the other to do it for him by trading away some of whatever Arnie has gathered in the same time it takes the other makes medicine on his behalf? Or if Arnie were bigger, would Arnie threaten to murder him if he did not make Arnie's medicine?

No matter how many more you add to this, unless you trade freely, you are threatening others who are not your kin to improve your life at their expense.

An insurer is someone who comes along and says,

"Say, I have watched mankind long enough. Some of you are going to experience losses. Others of you are bullies and would assume murder, if need be, to get your way. 
"I can help you stop bullying each other and replace what is lost to the loser. It's called insurance. Based on the skills I have gained, skills of the mind  that are no different than the surgeon, architect or even car mechanics, I can take on your potential losses of what you have at risk. All you need to do is compensate me for my skills to the point that dissuades me from becoming a surgeon, an architect or even a car mechanic."

Insurance, this is why it exists.

The problem with medical bills insurance is the same problem Americans have elsewhere in industriies like telecommunication and transportation. There are handful of firms who have colluded to engage in regulatory capture.

Regulations exist to inhibit upstarts with better capital (newer technology) from entering a field and instantly wiping out the extant capital structures of established players.

It's called Crony Politics.

For the deeper thinker, here are excerpts from my work titled,  The Theory of Trading Property for Profit, which is the only correct theory every offered on commerce.

Men produce things for the purpose of trading those things through purchase and sale in effort to secure profit expressed in buying power, which today gets embodied in cash or credit. Men do so because they believe their gained buying power sooner or later will let them buy something else wanted, which better suits their living, than what it is they sell.

To this drive to produce in hopes of profit so that we can buy what we want in the future, we give the name as the profit motive.

It is this living by using property as capital to produce a surplus of other property, hoping to trade that property as wealth in purchases and sales for prices such that the sum of sales exceeds the cost to gain those sales which we call commercialism.

When anyone can gain exclusive control over a thing, whether of the mind or of matter, from the mass of free goods, this control gets called property. And so by property, all mean an exclusive right to control a good of trade.

The essence of property resides in relationships of men as to right and duty toward each other in relation to things. Property is the right of ownership in something first recognized by custom, and today, by men through law in administration of justice.

Property created and traded is wealth. Wealth is the property of purchase and sale.

For all of trade, profit is the true regulator. Any producer only will produce surplus property goods of trade when believing profit can be gained over outlays needed to produce such surplus. As well, based on skills and know-how, any producer shall focus efforts to produce surplus property goods of trade, which lead to the biggest profit.

Without at least hitting break even, a seller must exit the field. The effect is a lessening of supply. In the face of the same bids, prices must rise.

Profit is both indicator and signal. The presence of profit signals potential for return to increasing capital to gain efficiency in effort to capture profit. Otherwise, competitors could come forth with better capital and snatch away that profit.

The sum of sales must at least equal the cost of production otherwise the producer goes to ruin.

For every enterprise undertaking adventurer, uncertainty exists over the present estimate of future prices. As well, there is uncertainty over the present estimate of future sales. Thus, there is uncertainty as to profits.

As well, uncertainty exists over delivery owing to dangers that can lead to loss.

The main loss incurred by anyone is the outlay in transformation of property into capital and from capital into wealth. However, such loss gets named operating cost.

Two other kinds of losses can happen. Loss arises also owing to outright destruction of property from materialized dangers. There is potential for an increase in what gets put on offer by all sellers against bidders, which could result in loss.

Should loss happen, someone must bear the loss of property and thus future earnings from what has been lost.

Risk-takers bet that they can calculate the long-run average loss from all conceivable dangers and all chances. In so doing, risk-takers gamble in hopes of a gain.

Risk-taking specialists can better take care of loss than the enterprise-undertaking adventurer and the wage-seeking worker. Such risk-taking specialists make it their business to understand the methods to profit from such activity.

There are four kinds of specialists — (1) insurers, (2) exchange speculators, (3) investors, (4) bankers.

Enterprise-undertaking adventurers seek to eliminate loss. Much of the improvement for the practical arts owing to technology arises in pursuit of better methods to eliminate loss.
Even after improvement, enterprise-undertaking adventurers can not eliminate every chance of loss. It is for this, that adventurers seek a specific kind of risk-taker, the insurer.

Insurers specialize in compensation against loss by splitting losses into fractional duties against which losers have rights. In this way, insurers broker fractional duties.

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Monday, October 17, 2016


So today, I came across another public expression of stupidity, this time, by Jim Puzzanghera of the Los Angeles Times in Why Calculating the Inflation Rate is So Complex.

Idiotically, Jim wrote, "The pace at which prices are rising — known as the inflation rate." 

Never in the history of Commercial Banking has inflation meant rising prices. Inflation has always meant rising banking credit.

Jim quotes Laurence Ball, another clueless man, an academic supposedly who is an expert on inflation and who is heads up the economics department of Johns Hopkins University. In a grand display of public stupidity, Ball claim this,  “Different people consume different baskets of goods, so my personal inflation rate and your personal inflation rate could be different.”

At least Jim had the good sense to quote Peter Schiff. Schiff gave his irreverent take on the matter,

“If the government is in charge of measuring inflation and the government benefits when the inflation number is low … it stands to reason they’re going to come up with a way to show that inflation is low. Would you believe the Mafia if they came out with a crime study that showed there wasn't a lot of crime?”

Contrary to the silliness of Puzzanghera and Ball, inflation is one of the easiest things to measure, but only if one understands a fiduciary monetary system (aka, a money-less system) as Congress instituted with the Federal Reserve system and Nixon made complete with Executive Order 11615, the Nixon Shock.

To get a better understanding of inflation, check out these:

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Saturday, October 8, 2016


Today, Paulie Ryan, the Speaker of the House of the United States Congress took to a stage to reveal his stupidity to the world.

While on stage, Paulie blathered away about commerce as if he could know anything about the matter. Ryan's Wikipedia bio reveals that Paulie has not worked a true job a day in his adult life. Paulie never has failed as a business owner because Paulie never started a business.

Paulie earned a degree in academic foolery called economics, but he did so at a mediocre school. Well, I earned an economics degree from a highly selective university. The eggheads who shared their dogma with me earned their Ph.D.s from Harvard, Yale, Berkeley and so on.

Economics is bunk, hokum. I have shown you why before in works like these:

Now, let us dismantle what Paulie believes, oh so foolishly. If the USA were isolated, and some states had weak regulations and poor residents, industry would move toward the poorer states precisely because firms could set up shop, pay lower wages and incur lower costs.

As long as the start-up costs for moving could be recouped during the depreciation of new factories, firms would move.

Well guess what? When the USA economy was isolated, firms did that exactly during the 1960s and 1970s. Major auto firms from Detroit moved to the South. The people in the South earned a little bit more and the people in Detroit and the north became much poorer.

When long-time third world Mexico joined the USA in NAFTA, "free" trade deal, Mexico became a poor state of our South, in effect, but a state without the same regulation schemes whose residents are many times poorer than even the poorest Americans.

And guess what again? Once NAFTA passed, manufacturers from the USA moved operations to Mexico because they could pay lower wages and operate under fewer regulations.

Now, with globalization, the favorite policy of Paul Ryan, Americans no longer are isolated. Paul Ryan is in the open borders camp along with Hillary Clinton. Paulie wants to accelerate the NAFTA-process to all third would countries with the USA. That is what TPP is all about. Paulie would vote yes on TPP.

In effect, Paulie would have all of the much poorer third world countries join the USA in a "free" trade union. The effect be to add dozens of super poor states to the USA. And you know you can guess what will happen if Paulie gets his way.

What stupid Paulie doesn't get is this: when wages fall for Americans, prices must fall. When prices fall, the returns to extant capital must fall. When returns to capital fall, firms invest fewer in fewer new capital. When there is less capital, wages must fall.

In short, dummy Paulie Ryan is one of the biggest champions of the capitalism death whorl.

Paul Ryan is a moron, a guy of mediocre intellect. Internationalist puppet morons like Ryan have derailed American capitalism through "free" trade deals with third world nations.
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Thursday, September 29, 2016


Hyperbole is an interesting technique. Today, the editors of Treehugger published a work by a Canadian named Lloyd Alter, titled, 35,092 Americans Died Last Year While Walking, Biking, and Driving.

In a rather clumsy attempt at public persuasion, Lloyd tried to connect motor vehicle deaths in the USA with proposed traffic policies for the city of Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

First, I will brush aside how a foreign province in a foreign land with different population density, different vehicle density and different rules about license acquisition as well as vehicle operation  — that is, the design, and hence cause — will give rise to different results, the effects. Yet, in his bio, Lloyd Alter of Toronto, Canada, the "design" editor of TreeHugger touts himself as an architect and a college egghead who teaches "design" at the at Ryerson University School of Interior Design.

Lloyd is bad at persuasion. Lloyd is about as as bad as anyone can get. And his lack of insight into how outcomes arise calls into question his reasoning skills at seeing any valid design.

Poor Lloyd,  the alleged "design" guy.  Lloyd failed persuasion with his deceitful headline — Last year in the United States, 35,092 people were killed on the roads..."

Deaths from all motor vehicle accidents have fallen a significant 21.9% between 2006 and 2014, the latest years for full figures on causes of death have been made available by the Centers for Disease Control. Using Lloyd's reported number of 35,092, which is smaller than the CDC's number, all deaths from motor vehicle accidents has fallen 7.5% in only one year!

Let us look further into the effect of a design reality that Lloyd simply cannot see:

  • There were 10 deaths of Americans per 100,000 who merely fell down.
  • There were 13.2 deaths of Americans per 100,000 who were too stupid not to poison themselves!
  • There were 10.5 deaths of Americans per 100,000 who, by choice, drank themselves into death by cirrhosis.

Comparing to the foregoing, there were 11.1 motor vehicle deaths of Americans per 100,000.  

In spite of Lloyd's public display of stupidity, motor vehicle deaths are in line with other kinds of accidents which kill Americans — falling down, poisoning oneself. It seems that Americans have hit a wall of design with respect to making Americans less accident prone when some Americans are left to their own decision power.

Dummy, design-challenged Lloyd wrote to me, "No matter how you cut it, 35,092 people and 2.4 million injuries are a lot of people" — before cowardly deleting my DISQUS comment about his article. Someone should have taught Lloyd the design-challenged "Design Guy" this:

truth has but one design

 Assuming Lloyd's 35,092 figure is right for 2015, the total USA population for 2015 was 320,090,857.  In the face of USA population, 35,092 is such a small number of people to be meaningless.

That works out to the equivalent of one one-hundredths of a penny to a dollar. Ask anyone if she or he believes one part of a hundred parts of a penny matters compared to a dollar, or much better, ask if a one part of a hundred parts of a penny matters compared to a salary for a whole year.

Lloyd's public display of statistical stupidity grows worse when one compares his hyperbole to world population. His "a lot of people" of 35,092 amounts to slicing one penny into one thousand micro-fine slivers and taking merely four (four one-thousands of one-percent)

So readers of Treehugger need to ask what is Lloyd's agenda. Why did Lloyd take the public arena to try to scare readers with hyperbole?  Could it be that Lloyd is merely a car-hating Luddite?

So you should know. There were 812.5 deaths of Americans per 100,000 who died from any cause but motor vehicle related accidents! Said another way, there were 73.2 times as many deaths by all other causes than by motor vehicle related accidents!

From the National Vital Statistics Reports, Volume 65, No. 1 to Present, 2014, which is the latest year for full data reporting by the CDC for all death categories, nearly as many Americans died merely falling down as all did in Motor vehicle accidents (31,959 vs 35,398). About 20% more Americans died of poisoning themselves than from all motor vehicle accidents.

Lloyd seems not to know that 35,398 deaths is insignificant in the face of 2,626,418 deaths. Motor vehicle deaths accounted for a tiny one percent of all deaths. And in perspective, the 35,398 motor vehicle deaths in 2014 accounted for 0.01100407651% of the population in that year. If you can't read that number, that is one one hundreds of one percent. 

Dummy Lloyd fails to know that nearly twice as many Americans die from mostly preventable diabetes driven by obesity than they die by motor vehicle deaths. If people want to feel aghast, they should be up in arms over deaths caused diseases, which people could prevent with better decisions such as diabetes (overeating), which is massively bigger problem that Lloyd Alter's non-problem.

Better luck next time for Lloyd, eh? You can find design-challenged Lloyd's contact info here: Lloyd Alter, Treehugger.

I encourage Lloyd and others like him to watch the video below and grasp some concepts about cause and effect. 

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Saturday, September 10, 2016


In dollars, gold has been up in 2016, almost 21%. However, gold is off still 52% from the September 2, 2011, dollar peak of $1,875.25.

What counts is how much stuff you can buy when you sell your gold. It is the True Dollars™ price of gold that counts. The True Dollars price of gold tells a different story.

Gold is down still about 52% over the last years and gold is down about 81% from it is all-time high. As I have shown you in , since gold has been de-monetized, the long-run trend for gold priced in other commodities is downward (see: MORE FOOL'S GOLD: GOLD VS COMMODITIES).

More or less, had you bought gold in 2006, you would be around break even today.

The combo of uncertainty in Fed Res policy combined with uncertainty in who will win the 2016 presidential election could be what has fueled the run up in gold for 2016.

In the long run, until the next banking credit crisis, which is many years away, there will not be major drivers for gold as there were between 2001 and 2011. While future central bankers could err the way Greenspan and Bernanke did when they caused the Greenspan-Bernanke Great Inflation, the greatest credit bubble in the history of mankind, such a mistake will be years away and easy to see.

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