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Thursday, September 29, 2016

TREEHUGGER.COM'S LLOYD "THE DESIGN GUY" ALTER FAILS AT PERSUASION DESIGN

Hyperbole is an interesting technique. Today, the editors of Treehugger published a work by a Canadian named Lloyd Alter, titled, 35,092 Americans Died Last Year While Walking, Biking, and Driving.



In a rather clumsy attempt at public persuasion, Lloyd tried to connect motor vehicle deaths in the USA with proposed traffic policies for the city of Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

First, I will brush aside how a foreign province in a foreign land with different population density, different vehicle density and different rules about license acquisition as well as vehicle operation  — that is, the design, and hence cause — will give rise to different results, the effects. Yet, in his bio, Lloyd Alter of Toronto, Canada, the "design" editor of TreeHugger touts himself as an architect and a college egghead who teaches "design" at the at Ryerson University School of Interior Design.

Lloyd is bad at persuasion. Lloyd is about as as bad as anyone can get. And his lack of insight into how outcomes arise calls into question his reasoning skills at seeing any valid design.

Poor Lloyd,  the alleged "design" guy.  Lloyd failed persuasion with his deceitful headline — Last year in the United States, 35,092 people were killed on the roads..."

Deaths from all motor vehicle accidents have fallen a significant 21.9% between 2006 and 2014, the latest years for full figures on causes of death have been made available by the Centers for Disease Control. Using Lloyd's reported number of 35,092, which is smaller than the CDC's number, all deaths from motor vehicle accidents has fallen 7.5% in only one year!

Let us look further into the effect of a design reality that Lloyd simply cannot see:

  • There were 10 deaths of Americans per 100,000 who merely fell down.
  • There were 13.2 deaths of Americans per 100,000 who were too stupid not to poison themselves!
  • There were 10.5 deaths of Americans per 100,000 who, by choice, drank themselves into death by cirrhosis.

Comparing to the foregoing, there were 11.1 motor vehicle deaths of Americans per 100,000.  

In spite of Lloyd's public display of stupidity, motor vehicle deaths are in line with other kinds of accidents which kill Americans — falling down, poisoning oneself. It seems that Americans have hit a wall of design with respect to making Americans less accident prone when some Americans are left to their own decision power.

Dummy, design-challenged Lloyd wrote to me, "No matter how you cut it, 35,092 people and 2.4 million injuries are a lot of people" — before cowardly deleting my DISQUS comment about his article. Someone should have taught Lloyd the design-challenged "Design Guy" this:

truth has but one design

 Assuming Lloyd's 35,092 figure is right for 2015, the total USA population for 2015 was 320,090,857.  In the face of USA population, 35,092 is such a small number of people to be meaningless.

That works out to the equivalent of one one-hundredths of a penny to a dollar. Ask anyone if she or he believes one part of a hundred parts of a penny matters compared to a dollar, or much better, ask if a one part of a hundred parts of a penny matters compared to a salary for a whole year.

Lloyd's public display of statistical stupidity grows worse when one compares his hyperbole to world population. His "a lot of people" of 35,092 amounts to slicing one penny into one thousand micro-fine slivers and taking merely four (four one-thousands of one-percent)

So readers of Treehugger need to ask what is Lloyd's agenda. Why did Lloyd take the public arena to try to scare readers with hyperbole?  Could it be that Lloyd is merely a car-hating Luddite?

So you should know. There were 812.5 deaths of Americans per 100,000 who died from any cause but motor vehicle related accidents! Said another way, there were 73.2 times as many deaths by all other causes than by motor vehicle related accidents!

From the National Vital Statistics Reports, Volume 65, No. 1 to Present, 2014, which is the latest year for full data reporting by the CDC for all death categories, nearly as many Americans died merely falling down as all did in Motor vehicle accidents (31,959 vs 35,398). About 20% more Americans died of poisoning themselves than from all motor vehicle accidents.

Lloyd seems not to know that 35,398 deaths is insignificant in the face of 2,626,418 deaths. Motor vehicle deaths accounted for a tiny one percent of all deaths. And in perspective, the 35,398 motor vehicle deaths in 2014 accounted for 0.01100407651% of the population in that year. If you can't read that number, that is one one hundreds of one percent. 

Dummy Lloyd fails to know that nearly twice as many Americans die from mostly preventable diabetes driven by obesity than they die by motor vehicle deaths. If people want to feel aghast, they should be up in arms over deaths caused diseases, which people could prevent with better decisions such as diabetes (overeating), which is massively bigger problem that Lloyd Alter's non-problem.

Better luck next time for Lloyd, eh? You can find design-challenged Lloyd's contact info here: Lloyd Alter, Treehugger.


I encourage Lloyd and others like him to watch the video below and grasp some concepts about cause and effect. 


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Saturday, September 10, 2016

GOLD IS UP 20% IN TRUE DOLLARS™. GOLD BUGS HAVE BEEN RIGHT IN 2016.





In dollars, gold has been up in 2016, almost 21%. However, gold is off still 52% from the September 2, 2011, dollar peak of $1,875.25.





What counts is how much stuff you can buy when you sell your gold. It is the True Dollars™ price of gold that counts. The True Dollars price of gold tells a different story.



Gold is down still about 52% over the last years and gold is down about 81% from it is all-time high. As I have shown you in , since gold has been de-monetized, the long-run trend for gold priced in other commodities is downward (see: MORE FOOL'S GOLD: GOLD VS COMMODITIES).

More or less, had you bought gold in 2006, you would be around break even today.




The combo of uncertainty in Fed Res policy combined with uncertainty in who will win the 2016 presidential election could be what has fueled the run up in gold for 2016.

In the long run, until the next banking credit crisis, which is many years away, there will not be major drivers for gold as there were between 2001 and 2011. While future central bankers could err the way Greenspan and Bernanke did when they caused the Greenspan-Bernanke Great Inflation, the greatest credit bubble in the history of mankind, such a mistake will be years away and easy to see.

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Monday, August 15, 2016

BARRY'S BOGUS ECONOMY. THE U.S. ECONOMY CONTINUES TO SHRINK IN 2016.


The True Dollar Journal has been quite over the last few months. During this time, I've been updating the True Dollar Data Engine (TDDE) since workers at the Federal Reserve updated their data formats. The new TDDE can zip through reams of data like never before. Now, let's get down to business ...




In "REAL" GDP IS FAKE, BOGUS, CRAP. AMERICANS AND SCHOOL CHILDREN HAVE BEEN 
HOODWINKED FOR DECADES, I showed you how bogus the academic concept of "real" GDP is. Currently, the Bureau of Economic Analysis calculates "real" GDP from an inflated GDP for 2009. In their propaganda release for Q2 2016 GDP, the minions of the BEA claimed "real" GDP grew at the rate of 1.2% annualized.

In True Dollars™, which is the only way one can know the true state of the economy, reveals the reality of a shrinking USA economy. The USA economy is shrinking at a rate of -3.4% a year. The record number of adults out of the workforce back up the True Dollars picture.





Noticeably, Barry Obama never talks up his economy. If the BEA numbers were to be believed, Obama could claim the economy grew almost 11% since the boom time peak of Q4 2007.

Clearly, Americans are not living anywhere near those boom times. Otherwise, Americans would have houses overfilled with everything and garages filled with the latest RVs and ATVs.













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Monday, July 25, 2016

TRUMP SURGES WITH WHITES WITHOUT COLLEGE DEGREES, THE KEY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUP AS PREDICTED HERE BACK IN NOVEMBER, 2015


Back on November 30, 2015, in NO ORDINARY WHITE GUY COULD EVER HOPE TO WIN THE U.S. PRESIDENCY IN 2016 AND MAYBE NEVER AGAIN. THE GOP WILL BE OVER SOON ENOUGH, I showed you that Donald Trump would be the only candidate who could beat Hillary Clinton in a historic election — the first woman president of the United States of America. In the work, I revealed the secret to winning for the right Republican nominee,

The key to winning elections against Democrats still is winning the white vote by a significant percent with a significant turn out. Whites still comprise 77% of the population and comprise the majority of voters.
That candidate needs to get whites without college degrees to show up and vote. They don't usually.
If the GOP candidate can get 10% more turn out of whites without college to show up and if that GOP candidate can get 10% more of them to vote GOP, that GOP candidate will be the next president. And this holds true even if 10% more Hispanics vote, 10% more blacks vote and 10% more Asians vote.
No ordinary white guy can could do that. Trump can. Trump is likely the only candidate who appeals to whites without college. Thus, likely Trump is the only shot a male registered Republican has at winning the presidency.


In today's Business Insider, Emma Fierberg reveals the results of a CNN/ORC International poll in a short slideshow video. The results of that poll show Trump doing exactly what he needs to do to win.








This is why Trump has opened up a lead against Hillary Clinton.


You can watch the full slide show here:





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Friday, July 15, 2016

JUNE 2016 RETAIL SALES FALL -2.3% IN TRUE DOLLARS™ MONTH-TO-MONTH WHILE MAINSTREAM MEDIA REPORTS A SIX-TENTHS OF A PERCENT RISE IN CURRENT DOLLARS.

Reporters were busy singing the praises of a current dollar retail sales report claiming growth.



Yet, in True Dollars™, no growth happened. Retail sales continue to be in decline from peak True Dollars GDP, which happened at the end of Q4, 2007.





The picture for autos looks even worse.






As you can see, gasoline sales are up in True Dollars terms. That should make sense to you as Americans have entered the summer driving season.





But hey, when your not-so-friendly neighborhood Fed Res central banker increases the cash in circulation by , in the last , it should be no surprise that everything expressed in current dollars is way up.






And so it is quite easy to have GDP growth expressed in that phony measure, "real" GDP when you have forever inflated chained current dollar GDP.








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Saturday, July 9, 2016

BLACK LYING MATTERS. HILLARY CLINTON BLAMES WHITES AND COPS. BROADCAST MEDIA LYING TO AMERICANS. THERE IS NO EPIDEMIC OF BLACKS BEING KILLED BY COPS.

If you listen to TV talking heads, the five cops killed in Dallas on July 7th by militant Micah Xavier Johnson happened because of a supposed epidemic of Americans who happen to be black killed by cops during black suspect versus cop interaction.



Subsequently, the pro-black racist movement, Black Lives Matter staged protests in cities across the USA in what they have dubbed the Weekend of Rage.

Hillary Clinton, the wife of former president Bill Clinton who conveniently manufactured her political career in the last days of his presidency and the current Democratic Party nominee for president, took to the airwaves and Twitter to blame some Americans — white Americans. As well, Hillary blamed cops.

"White Americans need to do a better job of listening when African Americans talk about the seen and unseen barriers you face every day ... I’m going to be talking to white people. I think we’re the ones who have to start listening to the legitimate cries that are coming from our African-American fellow citizens.
I will call for white people, like myself, to put ourselves in the shoes of those African-American  families who fear every time their children go somewhere, who have to have ‘The Talk,’ about, you now, how to really protect themselves [from police], when they’re the ones who should be expecting protection from encounters with police ... We’ve got to figure out what is happening when routine traffic stops, when routine arrests, escalate into killings … Clearly, there seems to be a terrible disconnect between many police departments and officers and the people they have sworn to protect" ~ Hillary Clinton, July 8, 2016.

Is Mrs. Clinton right? Are the propagandists of Black Lives Matter right?

For every year, the Criminal Justice Information Services Division of the FBI produces crime statistics from over 18,000 city, university/college, county, state, tribal, and federal law enforcement agencies under the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program. The UCR results in these yearly reports: Crime in the United States, National Incident-Based Reporting System, Law Enforcement Officers Killed and Assaulted, and Hate Crime Statistics. The latest full year data exists for the year 2014.

In 2014, there were 1,165,383 violent crimes committed and 8,277,829 property crimes committed (Table 1). That totals to 9,443,212. Violent crimes include murder, non-negligent manslaughter, rape, robbery, assaults, and violent arson. Property crimes include burglary, larceny, motor vehicle theft.

In 2014, there were 8,730,665 arrests (Table 43A). For both known violent crimes and property crimes as well as a host of other crimes including forgery, counterfeiting, fraud, embezzlement, stolen goods dealing, vandalism, prostitution, illegal drugs possessions, gambling, drunkenness, disorderly conduct, driving under the influence and vagrancy.

In 2014, there were 444 justifiable homicides, that is, the killing of a felon by a law enforcement officer in the line of duty (Expanded Homicide Data Table 14).

Of the 8.7 million arrests in 2014, five thousandths of one percent ended up in justifiable homicide — a cop killing a suspect. That would be like taking one penny from a pile of 100 pennies, cutting that penny into one thousand parts and then taking five of those slivers.
Even if the number of those killed by cops doubled to 888 in 2014, that would still only be one one-hundredths of one percent.

The workers at Centers for Disease Control reported 2,626,418 deaths for 2014. For every 100,000 there were 823.7 deaths. So for all races, justifiable homicide came to 1.6 one-hundredths of one percent in 2014. The number is so small as to be meaningless in the context of deaths.

For 2016, through June, of the 509 killed by cops, here is the breakdown of race by percent:

  • WHITES, 46.8%
  • Blacks, 24.2%
  • Browns ("Hispanics"), 15.5%

Blacks and browns ("Hispanics") combined still do not exceed the killing of whites by cops, 39.7%.

Almost twice as many whites get killed by cops than blacks (1.93) yet blacks commit the most homicides. 

As an aside, the 2014 population estimate came in at 318,892,103 (July 2014). The population aged 15 and up came in at 257,027,035. For every person 15 and up in the USA in 2014, there were 29 arrests.


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Wednesday, July 6, 2016

NFL PLAYERS GRIPE ABOUT THEIR WAGES RELATIVE TO NBA PLAYERS WHILE ONLY WORKING PART-TIME

Over the last few days in the American pro sports world, NFL players have griped over the wages of NBA players. It seems that even ordinary NBA players earn over $30 million a year.



Sportswriters at ESPN have concocted all kinds of silly theories that could only come from sports writers as to why NFL players earn less. Alas, sportswriters are not men of commerce.

The NFL gets about $8 billion a year for TV. There are 32 teams and rosters have 53 players. That comes to $4,422,169.81 a player.

The NBA gets about $3 billion a year for TV. There are 30 teams and rosters have 14 players on average (13 is the minimum). That comes to $7,142,857.14 a player.

In the other major pro sports, (NBA, NHL, MLB), players work full-time, playing both offense and defense. NFL players are highly-specialized part-time workers (e.g. long-snapper, quarterback).

If NFL players could play both offense and defense and thus if rosters were cut in half, NFL players would earn more than NBA players.  With NFL rosters cut in half and thus NFL players doing full-time work, there would be $8,844,339.62 an NFL player vs $7,142,857.14 an NBA player. That comes to $1,701,482.48 more for each NFL player.

A wage is a price and as a price conforms to the Law of Prices— the winning bid of purchases and sales in the face of what is on offer sets the price. All wages get set in a double auction. Buyers of work bid up wages while sellers of work bid down wages.

Likely, many NBA players could play other pro sports such as the NFL or MLB. To keep them from defecting, their wages must be high enough. Yet, so few NFL players could play in other pro sports. And those who could likely only could play in the minor leagues.

Also the pool of potential NFL players is much higher than the pool for NBA players. There are so few who stand 6'5" or taller on earth let alone 6'8" and who are coordinated. The larger NFL pool of players bids down wages.

What happens when we compare work?

An NBA game runs 48 minutes. An NBA season runs 82 games. There are 3,936 minutes to an NBA season.

An NFL game runs 60 minutes. An NFL season runs 16 games. There are 960 minutes to an NFL season.

If every player in each league were paid equally from their respective TV income pools, 
an NFL player would be paid $4,606.43 a minute while an NBA player would get paid $1,814.75 a minute. So on a per minute basis, an NFL player earns 2.54 times as much as an NBA player.

On a full-time, 40-hour work week, an NBA player would earn the equivalent of $226.5 million while the NFL player would earn $574.9 million! When you consider that an NFL player typically plays half a game, at an equalized pay rate, an NFL player would earn the equivalent of over one billion dollars a year, US$1.15 billion!

Of course, the foregoing fails to account for practice time and workout time. 


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