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Super Depression, 2008-2022. More Proof Courtesy of the Federal Reserve. We're Now Living in the Inflationary Stage.

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FRED, which stands for  Federal Reserve Economic Data, is an online database of economic time series data. The Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis maintains hundreds of thousands of data sets gathered from many sources including the Federal Reserve itself. 

FRED is one of the key providers of data for the True Dollar Journal and my proprietary True Dollar method of removing the effects of inflation from the economy.

True Dollar Journal, Growth and Changes

Owing to Covid-19 and other challenges, I had suspended the update process of the TDJ calculation engine, which handles the True Dollar calculation. In 2015, I had pivoted the content of the TDJ heavily toward USA politics because of the rise of Trump. The tag line of the TDJ became "Leading the Republic Restoration." The rise of all-consuming Covid-19  politics and data during 2020 and 2021 kept my editorial focus there.

Recently though, after a year of speculating in crypto-tokens and crypto-currency, I decided to pivot back the editorial focus to economics and markets. Today's TDJ tag line is "Speculating • Investing • Innovation • World." In short, the TDJ is here to help you lovely readers come to your own speculation and investing decisions, especially considering innovation, such as the upheaval in energy and transportation, along with the ascendant growth of Pacific Asia in the fast forming multi-polar world.

Super Depression, 2008-2022. More Proof Courtesy of the Federal Reserve.

A week or so ago, in light of the CPI reporting by the BLS, I vowed to myself to update the calculation engine, a system written in the fantastic programming language, Red.  

Every once in awhile, a data series gets discontinued. When the people at FRED have done this in the past, that has forced me to find alt data sources.

So poking around at FRED recently, I discovered a few charts that confirm what I had been writing since 2008 through now, that you are living in the longest economic depression in the history of the USA and likely do not even know it.

First, I found Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income (TDSP). The annotations are mine. This chart captures through what I have lived and know to be true. For commentary, see:  Booming Biden Economy? Oh Really? Likely the USA Has Remained in Economic Depression Since 2008.


Today, I found another amazing chart that confirms my long-standing work on the True Dollar Journal with my True Dollars method of deflating inflation.

First, let us look at my True Dollars GDP (through 2019) versus "Real" GDP, the fiction which the BEA peddles as truth:



The True Dollars curve, my curve is the orange one, which shows the actual GDP of the USA over time after removing inflation using my proprietary method of removing currency inflation.

The blue line reflects the academia economics PhD method of allegedly removing the effects of inflation. Their way lets politicians always claim the economy is growing even when it is not. Their way is hashtag Fake Economics.

You can reach this chart always by this link:  "Real" GDP vs True GDP.

The Amazing Chart, the Velocity of Money


Now, let us look at this amazing chart, Velocity of M1 Money Stock. The velocity of "money" shows how many times the same dollar turns over (changes hands) to buy goods and services sold in the USA over time.  In short, the velocity of money, is the rate at which consumers and businesses in an economy collectively spend money.

The velocity of money (VoM) is a measurement of the rate at which money is exchanged in an economy. It is the number of times that money moves from one entity to another. It also refers to how much a unit of currency is used in a given period of time. 

The velocity of money will be rising when the economy is expanding will be falling when the economy is contracting. Thus, you can use the VoM to gauge the soundness of the economy.

During expansion, consumers and businesses readily spend. That causes causing the VoM to rise. During contraction, consumers and businesses spend less. That causes the VoM to fall.

Of course, in the USA, there is no money. Money, were it to exist, would be coined metal by weight and fineness. In the USA there is only bank credit, expressed in dollars, whether in checking accounts or in Federal Reserve note form.



Seeing this curve, right away, I knew that I had seen it elsewhere. It is the same curve produced by me for years after using my True Dollars method of removing inflation from the economy.

As you can see, we are in an economic depression or what I call the Super Depression. How can anyone claim there was a recovery and a growing economy under Obama, as well as a growing economy under Trump and now Biden if the turn over of a dollar has become lower and lower over time?

The Velocity of M1 is a good proxy for the true GDP growth or decline, that is, whether or not the economy is growing or shrinking. It confirms what I have said for years and what I have shown for years with my True Dollars GDP. 

Think about this. The stats hounds at the Federal Reserve calculate VoM,  as the ratio of quarterly nominal GDP (GDP) to the quarterly average of M1 money stock (M1SL). In the True Dollars deflator method, I use current GDP, of course, along with currency and checkable deposits indexed to a proprietary base measure. Though there is some sharing of the data sets, the mathematics to achieve the results are different, entirely from each other.

We are living in an economic depression, what I call the Super Depression. We have been living in one since 2008. It has gotten much worse. We have now entered the dollar inflation phase of it.



Is it a Conspiracy? Is it the Davos Crowd Great Reset?

It would seem hard to believe that I alone know the truth and that Federal Reserve central bankers do not. If they do not, they are among the most dangerous people on earth because that would make them powerful and stupid.

Let us assume they know what I know, that is, we are living in a rather long economic depression. Then perhaps after years of "normal" Quantitative Easing (QE) failing to jump the start the economy, Fed Res bankers decided to capitalize on the Covid-19 hysteria created by politicians and media to engage in QE magnitudes greater. 

This time though, they are using dollar inflation by buying new issues of US Treasuries, which Congress, having taken the proceeds, stuffed directly in the form of checking account credits into the accounts of ordinary citizens.

Other TDJ Works

Here are some related reads for you. The rabbit hole goes deeper the more you read on the TDJ.

To comment about this story or work of the True Dollar Journal, you can @ me through the Fediverse. You can find me @johngritt@freespeechextremist.com

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