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Thursday, June 5, 2014

THE FANTASY PERFORMANCE OF BETTER CARS AND TRUCKS SALES HYPED THIS WEEK ON YOUR LOCAL BIZARRO THEATER STAGE

So the other day a staged performance went down across America on the stages of Bizarro Theaters everywhere. This time, the show was auto sales.




First, know that data reported on the stages of Bizarro Theaters were annualized. Annualized data made sense in the days of money (gold coin)  and an American population of farmers who had to wait to sell crops after harvest before securing income to buy things. In those days, so called country bankers sent deposits to New York City to earn interest before calling back those deposits as harvest time neared.

Today, farmers can get credit anytime to buy cars, trucks and vacations. As well, the percent of population involved in farming amounts to almost a rounding error of total population.

Nonetheless, the hype over auto sales data comes from a reported 16.8 million sales of cars and light trucks. This count is being touted as the fasted pace of sales since February 2007.

But what is the reality?  As I preach always, numbers are meaningless without context. Yet, on the stages of Bizarro Theaters, that is all you see, staged nihilism propaganda.

To understand what is going on, you need to see car sales in context of the civilian population, specifically the civilian non-institutional population aged 16+ and more importantly, the prime age work adults.

Let's have a look. To read these charts, the lows are the better numbers. The Drive ratios compare how many Americans there are for each new car and light truck sold.




Both the Drive 16 ratio and the Drive 25 to 54 ratios tell us something else. 




To remove the effects of the Greenspan-Bernanke Inflation Bubble, the largest credit bubble in American history, let's look at historical high sales average between the Nixon and Clinton presidencies. 

To match the historical high sales average between the Nixon and Clinton presidencies, monthly cars sales would need to grow a stunning 28.6% based on current population count of driving age Americans, 16 and older. Monthly car sales would need to grow a staggering 33.2% for prime age working Americans.

Now let's look at the Drive ratio for workers.


Monthly car sales would need to grow a staggering 36.9% for actual working Americans to match the historical high sales average between the Nixon and Clinton presidencies.

As a percent of GDP, motor vehicle sales look horrible. The Obama highs barely touch the Carter and Reagan lows Americans suffered between 1980 and 1982.