GDP reports lag. So when looking at GDP data, you can only know what has happened. However, what you would like to know is what will happen. How else can you invest or speculate with confidence?
Right now, GDP in True Dollars™, which is the only way that removes the effects of inflation accurately, is running 16.7% below the long run historical average taken from Q1 1959 through to True Peak GDP at the end of Q4 2007.
As of reported GDP data, the Greenspan-Bernanke Greatest Depression has yet to end. However, there are signs the economy might begin to grow or at least stop the decline.
In the key sectors of the economy that lead an advance, wages have seen growth. Wages have been up three months straight in construction.
Wages have been up two months straight in durable goods manufacturing.
As well, wages have been up two months straight in transportation and warehousing.
There can be rises in wages only when the return to capital rises since the return to capital is the source of wages.
With an upward turn in durable goods wages and construction wages, and should this hold, likely soon, sustained activity in business will lift interest rates above levels that prevailed during the Greenspan-Bernanke Greatest Depression.
When wages as measured in True Dollars begin to rise, workers gain discretionary income. This lets them buy what they have desired for awhile but which they could not buy when their incomes lagged.
In spite of the relentless propaganda, an economic recovery never happened under Obama. During the Obama years, which covered the Greenspan-Bernanke Greatest Depression, we observed low prices, low wages, tight money for commoners in spite of low interest rates, many firm failures, people who became thrifty, prevailing pessimism, and bankers accumulating reserves.
And you can be sure that Americans are not living under good times and prosperity. During good times, you will see what always happens — high prices, high wages, everyone is optimistic, people spend with ease, the riskiest stocks sell at the highest prices, there are many new stock issues, interest rates rise higher, bond prices fall. Further, credit gets abused whereby many take on liabilities that they will fail to meet as expected forthcoming profits will fail to materialize.
As well, you can be sure that Americans are not living near peak prosperity. When nearing the peak, happening near the next crisis, typically, politicians award big municipal boondoggles. These boondoggles tend to happen at increasing rate.
Stock markets never make booms. Economic booms and good times always only get made in the country's factory floors, workshops, forests, mines and soon-to-be improved parcels.
The massive attempt at artificially stimulating the economy through quantitative easing undertaken by Bernanke and Yellen failed every year since 2008. There were quite short-lived attempts at take-off in a quarter here or there. Yet, nothing sustained because artificial stimulation never is sound. Prudent businessmen simply do not partake in underwriting future prosperity during periods of artificial stimulation.
We are beginning to see the early stages of an advance, which will lead to a boom, only now.
Over the last few weeks, I have shown you by other measures that reveal the economy could be growing at long last.
- GASOLINE RETAIL SALES OVER THREE MONTHS REVEALS MORE POSITIVE NEWS ON THE ECONOMY
- THE MAY 2017 EXISTING HOUSE SALES REPORT LOOKS GOOD. THE PERPETUAL PESSIMISTS HAVE IT OH SO WRONG.
- MORE GOOD NEWS ABOUT THE U.S. ECONOMY in 2017
- IS THE ECONOMY NEAR TAKE-OFF? SOME SIGNS SAY YES.
And while the Russell 2000 is slightly above 20% over its long-run average, it is still 28.4% below what it traded at during True Peak GDP during Q4 2007.
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