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Sunday, September 17, 2017

ELON MUSK'S HYPERLOOP DECLARES FINALIST ROUTES. WHAT SHOULD HYPERLOOP EXECS DO?


Elon Musk's Hyperloop, the futuristic high-speed transport system held something they called The Hyperloop One Global Challenge, a call for comprehensive proposals to build Hyperloop networks connecting cities and regions around the world. More than 2600 teams registered. Hyperloop execs narrowed the field down to the 35 strongest proposals.  The final assessment selected the ten routes as winners of the Global Challenge.
Hyperloop execs selected winning routes, from which, they will seek to build at least one production system by 2021. Here are the winning routes: 
  • Toronto-Montreal, Canada 
  • Bengaluru-Chenna, India 
  • Mumbai-Chennai, India 
  • Mexico City-Guadalajara, Mexico 
  • Edinburgh-London, UK 
  • Glasgow-Liverpool, UK 
  • Chicago-Columbus-Pittsburgh, US
  • Miami-Orlando, US
  • Cheyenne-Denver-Pueblo, US
  • Dallas-Laredo-Houston, US

Basically, the Hyperloop is a pressured vacuum tube that pushes pod vehicles through a high speed. 
From the finalists, the Hyperloop planners ought to build two routes: Toronto-Montreal and Chicago-Columbus-Pittsburgh. From here, the Hyperloop planners could connect the routes through Detroit.


The terrain seems favorable as there are no mountain ranges to tackle.
Building out around Chicago (2,704,958) would seem easier and offer much. Routes that could connect to Chicago would be Minneapolis-Milwaukee, Kansas City-St. Louis, Nashville-Louisville-Cincinnati-Indianapolis. As it is, the Kansas City-St. Louis route was a finalist for this competition.

A Midwest Hyperloop connecting Pittsburgh to Chicago via Columbus could see travel times of less than 30 minutes between Columbus and Chicago. Such a route could support the Great Lakes megaregion, which has 20% population and economic activity.

One in 4 Canadians live in the metropolitan areas of Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal. This is the fourth most populated region in North America. The aforementioned cities comprise the heart of the Windsor-Quebec Corridor.  With Hyperloop, a trip tripe between Toronto and Ottawa could be 27 minutes, Montreal to Ottawa in 12 minutes, and Toronto to Montreal in 39 minutes. 
The Hyperloop has the potential to turn cities into suburbs of bigger cities, e.g, Pittsburgh (63rd in pop) becomes a suburb of Columbus (14th in pop) and Columbus becomes a suburb of Chicago (3rd). If it proves to be true, a Hyperloop system could transform the movement of freight and the flow of goods across any region.
So what about California? California presents too many problems. Los Angeles is surrounded by mountains, which would increase construction costs. The state legislature has been building their slow-moving bullet train for more than a decade now. Likely, too, environmentalist activists and the corrupt political machinery of California would throw up major impediments to building one.

Hyperloop One intends on having a system built for use by 2021.
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Tuesday, September 12, 2017

HARVEY, IRMA AND CLIMATE CHANGE. FOSSIL FUELS SAVED US!

Climate Change propagandists blustered about hurricanes Harvey and Irma. They seized these crises to claim man caused these hurricanes.

Mind you, after Hurricane Katrina which hit back in 2005, climate change propagandists told us we would experience three or four Katrina like events every year because of man-made global warming. Not surprisingly, their predictions failed. It took twelve years after Katrina for a hurricane to hit the USA.

What drives climate change crypto-communists is their desire to control energy. So, relentlessly, these misanthropes strive to link any weather disaster to fossil fuels.

Yet, without fossil fuels, there could be no rockets to put weather satellites in orbit. There could be no storm-chasing airplanes. There could be no fleet of sufficiently-powered rescue boats to whisk away people to safety and away from drowning. There could be no back up electrical generators without fossil fuels.

Without fossil fuel driven devices, likely there would be serious death tolls.

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Friday, September 1, 2017

DID THE HIGHLY USA-DEPENDENT CANADIAN ECONOMY GROW 4.5%? TAKE OFF, EH!



Yesterday, reporters of various media outlets including the Financial Post touted a surge in the growth of the Canadian economy. According to Statistics Canada, the statistical agency of the Canadian government, the economy of Canada grew at an annual rate of 4.5%. However, is that true?




Priced in True Dollars™ (orange line), the Canadian economy grew 1.19% quarter over quarter for annualized GDP. The Canadian economy is still down -60.03% from its True Dollar peak Canadian GDP, which it hit at the end of the first quarter 2008.

Exports account for 26.3% of the Canadian economy. Exports to the United States account for 75.2% of that. Said another way, Americans buy 19.8% of the sum of what Canadians sell.

Yet, Stats Canada and the Canadian government would have the world believe the economy of Canada is growing in spite of the nine year economic depression, the Greenspan-Bernanke Great Depression, in which Americans only now are crawling out from under.

In THE BARISTA ECONOMY. HAS THE US ECONOMY LEVELED AT LONG LAST?, the True Dollar Journal revealed how loans to working age population have only leveled off after a -95.03% drop from the peak hit at the end of February, 2008. USA True Dollar GDP has yet to level.



The Canadian economy is still down -1.31% year over year.




The Canadian economy is down -28.4% over its long run average since 1971.







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Sunday, August 27, 2017

THE BARISTA ECONOMY. HAS THE US ECONOMY LEVELED AT LONG LAST?

Here at the True Dollar Journal, I have stressed many times that no one can see what is happening in the economy as long as persons rely upon prices and sums quoted either in nominal dollars or in "real" dollars.  Real dollars quotations simply are as bogus as current dollar quotations.



As I explained in "REAL" GDP IS FAKE, BOGUS, CRAP. AMERICANS AND SCHOOL CHILDREN HAVE BEEN HOODWINKED FOR DECADES, the base used for deflated current dollars are past inflated current dollars. There is no way you can measure any distance with a ruler that keeps growing. Yet, this is what academicians and bankers at the Federal Reserve would have you believe you can do with respect to prices under a fiduciary monetary system.

Once you see the economy through True Dollars™, the only way to discount for inflation in the USA under the fiduciary monetary system, everything makes sense.



At long last, it would seem the Greenspan-Bernanke Great Depression, the massive decline in the economy that began after the blow up of the Greenspan-Bernanke Great Inflation, the greatest credit bubble in the history of mankind, has come to an end. Right now the economy is trading at September 1996 or April 1973 levels.



At peak GDP measured in True Dollars, Loans-to-Prime Working Age (25-54) population traded at 75.6 times the long run average. You should expect Loans-to-Prime Working Age to trade at a multiple above the long run average during the peak of good times. Today, that ratio trades at -6.7% below the long run average.



You should expect economic life to be more the way it was for Americans between the years of 1971 through 1993 than between 1994 and 2007. Without the net massive speculative transformation in the economy like the Internet and without a foolish central banker like Alan Greenspan, there is little reason to believe there will be another great credit inflation.

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Thursday, August 17, 2017

THE DEBT-TO-GDP RATIO CONTINUES TO FALL IN 2017. THE ALWAYS INDEBTED U.S. CONGRESS AND THE KEYNESIAN FALLACY OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING IS GOOD.


Today, August 17, 2017, the Pew Research Center published 5 Facts About the National Debt. In the work, writer Drew DeSilver alludes to the forthcoming raise the debt ceiling showdown in Congress.

So what is the true picture of Congress' debt? Once current dollars get normalized into True Dollars™, the only effective way to discount for inflation under a fiduciary monetary system, Congress' debt has been falling since it hit a peak on September 30th, 2010. Since the True Dollar peak, Congress' debt has fallen 30.4%




The current debt of Congress as priced in True Dollars™ has fallen 16.5% below what it was at True Peak GDP.




However, Congress' debt is still 73.5% above the long run average.



Debt To GDP


The Debt-to-GDP ratio of Congress' debt is ugly. 




The ratio as calculated in True Dollars has stayed within a range since 2012.


And the ratio to the long run average since 1959 is quite high, still hovering over double the average.



CONGRESS SPENDING AND GDP

It is dogma by academicians in economics that government spending is a boon. They believe when an economy flounders, lawgivers simply should step in, run deficits and magically, the economy will grow.

They have been preaching such foolery since John Maynard Keynes came up with the rhetoric to justify excessive government spending. 




Yet, as you can see, when the Debt-to-GDP ratio becomes excessive, the economy falters.





The U.S. economy consistently grew from Kennedy until Reagan. Under the excessive debt growth during the Reagan and Bush senior years, in True Dollars, the only measure that counts, the U.S. economy shrank.

During the Clinton years, the Debt-to-GDP ratio fell 17.1%. And GDP boomed during the Clinton years, mostly owing to the massive commercial debt during the Greenspan years of the Greenspan-Bernanke Great Inflation, the greatest credit bubble in the history of mankind.

During the 16 years of Bush junior and Obama, the economy barely grew under Bush and decidedly shrank during the Greatest Depression of the Obama years.

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Monday, August 14, 2017

ESPN OF THE FUTURE, OR NETFLIX MEETS DOUBLECLICK

LinkedIn.com published on If I Were...ESPN, a work by Andrew Schroepfer, the founder, CEO and Chief Strategy Officer of Big Cloud Sales and also a self-proclaimed sports enthusiast.

In the work, Schroepfer presents a list of show ideas for a future ESPN. And while each concept might have merit, Schroepfer seems to be stuck in a paradigm of TV show development and offerings. And well, Schroepfer's kind of thinking does not seem strategic at all.



And now for something completely different ...

ESPN could become the broker of sports entertainment already being captured ("broadcast") by TV firms worldwide and a programmatic advertising network to let advertisers target ads.

Sports TV is ubiquitous in many nations. Rather than originate content, which incurs quite a bit of expenses, ESPN execs could become a Doubleclick / OpenX meets Netflix mash-up.

How?

  1. ESPN execs could set up the back end to support "re-streaming" of broadcast signals by those already broadcasting sporting events.
  2. ESPN execs could charge users on a pay-per-view basis, splitting the revenue between content producers and themselves.
  3. ESPN execs could establish a programmatic advertising network to let advertisers buy viewers based on highly targeted demographic profiles. Such a network could support real-time bidding.


Cord cutting and fractionalized viewer interest driven by Millennials are fast creating a future where traditional paradigm thinking as expressed by Schroepfer will not bring in profit on margins needed to give adequate returns to investors.



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Sunday, August 6, 2017

CURTAILING IMMIGRATION MAKES CAPITALISM WORK. ECONOMIC ILLITERATES VERSUS PRESIDENT TRUMP'S IMMIGRATION REFORM PLAN.

At the beginning of the week, President Trump along with Sens. Tom Cotton, R-Arkansas, and David Perdue, R-Georgia, announced the Reforming American Immigration for Strong Employment (RAISE) Act, bill to better manage immigration into the United States.

The RAISE Act would reduce legal immigration by half and would establish a merit-based system based on education, English-language ability, high-paying job offers, and age.

Currently, over one million immigrants gain residency yearly. Most are low or unskilled workers. More than 50% of all immigrant households receive welfare benefits, which is much higher than the 30% of native born Americans who do.

At the announcement, President Trump said, “This legislation demonstrates our compassion for struggling American families who deserve an immigration system that puts their needs first and that puts America first. This legislation will not only restore our competitive edge in the 21st century, but it will restore the sacred bonds of trust between America and its citizens.”

In spite of the lying rhetoric spewed by many, the United States is not a nation of immigrants. As I showed readers of the True Dollar Journal back on Tuesday, August 5, 2014, in THE BIG LIE: AMERICANS ARE A NATION OF IMMIGRANTS, the United States never has been a nation of immigrants.

From 1770 onward immigration has been a fraction of population, never exceeding 15% in any decade and having been as low as 0.6%.
Over the history of the USA, American-born population has averaged 91.7%.
It's only since Billy Clinton that Americans have witnessed an uptick in immigration population relative to Americans, averaging 12% since 1990. 


Economic illiterates everywhere, from current House speaker Paul Ryan, journalists at the Establishment's media and slew of dopey professors with PhDs in economics claim that economic growth of the United States will be harmed by curtailing immigration. 

Yet, during some of the best years of economic life in the USA, between 1940 and 1990, immigrant population averaged 6.7% of population. 

In truth, economic growth comes from increasing buying power and not from increasing population, ever.

If what the pro-immigrant pushers say is true, how do they explain Norway?

Norwegians are 1.23 times richer per person than Americans on much slower population growth. 

Norway population growth has remained under 1% a year every year since 1960 save seven between 2008 and 2015 when the rate barely exceeded 1%. Yet GDP per Norwegian in Norway is nearly $71,000. 




USA population growth has exceeded 1% nearly every year since 1960. Yet, Americans are poorer than Norwegians.





How Capitalism Really Works


Economic illiterates like Paul Ryan, John McCain, Lindsay Graham, the Establishment's media need lessons on capitalism, desperately. Here is how capitalism works:

  1. The source of wages are return to capital. 
  2. The source of more capital is increasing return to capital. 
  3. One only can get increasing returns under labor shortages.
  4. Thus higher wages only come under conditions of labor shortage.


Where there is no capital and thus no returns to capital there can be no wages (e.g., Africa). Where is little capital per worker, wages are low (e.g., China, India). 

The anti-competitive, political cronyism class would like to turn the USA into another India or China — high population of low-skill, no-skill workers.

We have been living under the capitalism death whorl because of the last 28 years of globalization which has flooded the United States with low-skill to no-skill working age immigrants.


  1. Wages come from the return to capital.
  2. Wages set all other prices.
  3. Increasing the working-age population faster than the return to capital rate makes real wages fall (not current dollar wages).
  4. When real wages fall, real prices fall (not current dollar prices).
  5. When real prices fall, the real returns to capital fall.
  6. When the real returns to capital fall, future capital investment falls.
  7. When future capital investment falls, future returns will be lower and thus future wages will be lower.
  8. In order to maintain profits by maintaining productivity, firms must increase the working-age population.
  9. And with that, we return to Step 3.
As I showed readers of the True Dollar Journal back on Thursday, May 22, 2014, in PRICES HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR YEARS! INFLATION? MAJOR DEFLATION HAS BEEN UNDERWAY SINCE 2007. SO WHY DOES LIFE SEEM HARDER?, true prices have been falling for years in spite of a rising current dollar prices. Since current prices get tallied in current dollars, Americans are under the illusion that prices, and wage rates are prices, keep going up.

Yet, once the effects of inflation get removed, it can be seen that prices expressed in True Dollars™ have been falling. That stands to reason. Every year, producers become slightly more efficient and thus can maintain margins (buying power) on lower true prices.


Legal immigration has been getting out of control increasingly since the 1970s. It needs to be cut if ordinary Americans ever hope to increase their true earnings.

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Saturday, July 22, 2017

THE OBAMACARE REPEAL DEBATE. WHY AMERICANS WILL CONTINUE TO SUFFER AT THE HANDS OF TRICKSTER POLITICIANS AND LOBBYISTS. TOO MANY AMERICANS HAVE OPINIONS BUT FAIL TO KNOW WHAT WORDS MEAN.

Here is an excerpt of a DISQUS chat between someone and myself over the latest proposal to repeal ObamaScam / ObamaCare. The chat reinforces what I published back on Sunday, February 15, 2015 in AMERICANS EXPRESS ENDLESS STUPIDITY IN THEIR DEBATE OVER MEDICAL ECONOMICS.



CLUELESS CATHY
Let's treat Healthcare like a utility, like gas and water. Heathcare profits should be controlled.

ME
Healthcare does not mean medicine. It's not a synonym.

The word healthcare was coined by a bureaucrat in 1940. It means Congress pays the bills. Medicaid and Medicare are examples of healthcare.

Medicine is a product.

Would you treat the manufacture and sale of smartphones and cellular telephone service as a utility? Would you treat the manufacture and sale of cars as a utility?
Would you treat the manufacture and sale of houses a utility?

No? So why would you advocate for medicine to be done so?

Instead, advocate for hyper-competition. If you enjoy low prices on other products because of competition, you would enjoy low prices on medicine for the same reasons.

CLUELESS CATHY
Let's start with your conservative free-market nirvana, where buyer and seller each armed with perfect information come together in a voluntary transaction.

ME
With your lame attempt at ad hominem through innuendo — "Let's start with your conservative free-market nirvana" — you have announced that you don't really desire to talk about this rationally. Also, you have committed the fallacy of ad hominem through innuendo.

CLUELESS CATHY
But from the get-go, the patient-as-consumer faces a knowledge asymmetry almost impossible to overcome. Americans' general deference to physicians isn't just a cultural trait, it simply reflects the expertise and training regarding diagnoses, possible treatments, and likely outcomes doctors possess and their patients do not.

For some cases and for some conditions, the layman can narrow that yawning information gap. But WebMD or no, it can't be eliminated.

But even if the diagnoses, treatments and cures for heart disease, diabetes or depression could be purchased in a free market, in the United States the buyer simply doesn't—or—can't know what price he or she will pay. Hospital prices for drugs, supplies, and procedures are completely opaque.

ME
Before 1965, hospitals routinely produced price lists for known services like pregnancy.

Because third parties pay for most Americans, doctors fail to advertise their prices.

However, when Americans buy elective medicine and surgery, Americans buy from sellers of elective medicine and surgery who not only advertise on prices but compete rigorously on price and quality.

Americans defer to the expertise of lawyers and yet lawyers reveal their prices. Americans defer to the expertise of car mechanics and yet mechanics reveal their prices.

Congress has a near monopsony and thus sets the prices on all medicine. In fact, $6.50 of every $10 spent on medicine is spent by Congress through Medicaid, Medicare and Veteran's Administration.

Get Congress out of medicine — end Medicaid and Medicare — and prices will fall.



CLUELESS CATHY
"Health" is not a commodity. Those who believe that choosing a health care product or service is no different than buying a car, television, or cell phone might feel differently after, say, developing colon cancer.

ME
Health isn't product at all. Health is a state of the individual. Health exists independent of medicine.

Medicine doesn't make health. Medicine eradicates disease. Medicine and surgery are not healthcare.


CLUELESS CATHY
As it turns out, that mystery pricing is one of the hallmarks of the American model that spends $2.8 trillion a year (over 17 percent of GDP) on health care, more than Japan, Germany, France, China, the U.K., Italy, Canada, Brazil, Spain, and Australia combined."

ME
Americans subsidize medicine worldwide. The drugs are developed here. The machines are developed here. Foreigners enjoy a windfall.

CLUELESS CATHY
I know how much my cell phone, car and house insurance cost.

ME
You seem to be like most. You're confusing costs with prices. Costs are outlays. Prices are rates.

You have made a complaint about the lack of transparency of prices and then you blather about costs.

CLUELESS CATHY
Have you ever been to a doctor in your life?

ME
Do you see how your question lacks relevancy?

CLUELESS CATHY
Typical deflection. Again... Have you ever been to a doctor or used healthcare insurance or Medicare or Medicaid?

ME
Your expression reveals that you fail to understand reality. The right question is this: Have you ever hired a doctor?

There is no such thing as healthcare insurance. Healthcare means Congress pays the medical bills. Medicaid and Medicare is how Congress does that.

Those programs are specific welfare given based on qualification (income and age respectively). Welfare isn't insurance.

You have asked the equivalent to this: Have you ever gone to a mechanic. But mechanics fix cars and not people.

So the right question is this: Have you ever hired a car mechanic to fix your car?

People hire doctors. Doctors sell the product of medicine.

Why do you believe malpractice can exist as a concept?

Anyone hires a doctor to sell medicine. Any doctor claims to know medicine (the practice of medical arts).

If a doctor does something that is not what he claimed he could do, he has liability (subject to lawsuit and upon loss, subject to damages).

CLUELESS CATHY
How do you hire a doctor if you're in a car crash and unconscious?

ME
If a 17-year old driver ends up in a car crash and unconscious, his custodial parent has authority and capacity.

In every state, there are provisions in law, which account for such matters.

It's likely that you do not know what authority means and what capacity means.

CLUELESS CATHY
But what if someone has no family or next of kin. Tell me again how someone, who is in a car accident and is unconscious can "hire" a doctor.

ME
In every state, there are provisions in law, which account for such matters.

In all states, law authorizes agents of the state to hire doctors on behalf anyone who temporarily lacks capacity because the presumption made lawgivers in all of the states awhile ago is simply this: if any individual were conscious and of sound mind in an emergency situation, that individual would put himself in liability to buy medicine and surgery on automatically given credit.

As a proviso of providing medicine, lawgivers require doctors, surgeons, hospital operators and other allied personnel to provide medicine and surgery in exchange for debt owed.

CLUELESS CATHY
Your word salad explanation means you're running away from the question.

ME
Your lame attempt at ad hominem "word salad" amuses.

Meanwhile my writing is precise. My words express precision and clarity not seen in almost all.

CLUELESS CATHY
As I lie under that bus in the road, what if my insurance company refuses to pay for my care? What if the insurer tried to intervene in my care to their own benefit instead of mine? What if the company with which I contracted for insurance services collapses and cannot pay for my medical care when I need it?

ME
There is provision in law for all of these matters. That is why we have courts to adjudicate matters.

CLUELESS CATHY
Under an insurance system without effective, powerful regulation, the market forces that would exist in a face to face transaction between consumer (patient) and supplier (doctor) disappear, replaced with a grim gamble in which the insurance company has every incentive to cheat.

We cannot maintain an insurance-based system of health care unless there is some force aligned with the consumer that has the superior authority and financial backing to hold the insurance providers to their end of the deal.

ME
Insurers are risk specialists who work on behalf of their risk pool participants. Insurers are a boon to mankind.

CLUELESS CATHY
The medical industry exists almost entirely to serve people who have been rendered incapable of representing their own interests in an adversarial transaction.

ME
Like any industry, participants of the medical industry exist only to serve their own self-interests. Yet, because they have become adept at crony politics, unlike participants of competitive industries, no longer do they need to serve the recipients of medicine and surgery with respect to price and quality. Instead, they operate in collusion with politicians.
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