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Tuesday, May 10, 2016

CLINTON VS TRUMP. WHO IS WINNING THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE?


Back in March, I shared with you HILLARY CLINTON VS DONALD TRUMP, THE REAL NUMBERS. TRUMP IS WINNING, which I showed you results from the election based on actual vote counts. I created that surrogate for you precisely because national presidential election polls touted by media are unscientific.

You should read my work WHY EVERY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION POLL FOR 2016 YOU SHALL SEE OR HEAR WILL BE WRONG. Because of the electoral college, a presidential election is 57 elections actually and not one. So to project a winner, for full accuracy, a scientific poll would need 57 surveys, each done around the same time, on the same day. For a margin of error of ±4%, each survey would need 784 completed questionnaires. That totals to 44,688!

Now, I give you two electoral college outcomes. One gets based on the total vote count for both Clinton and Trump. The other gets based on the total vote count plus 80% of the count of votes going to other candidates within each candidate's respective party.



Head-to-head Trump is losing and losing big. Trump is losing the popular vote. Likely, this is why TV talking heads seem confident that Hillary Clinton, a woman who based her career on being the wife of a former president, will win the presidency handily.

This should surprise no one. The Gallup Organization tells us that 30% of registered voters are Democrats while 24% are Republicans.

However, once party voting by party turnout this primary season gets factored into this, Trump is winning and winning big.













Trump likely will be the next president of the United States of America. Based on actual results, here is a best guess as of May 10, 2016: