Thursday, March 17, 2016


Forget the head-to-head polls touted by your favorite TV stations. All of those polls are wrong.

As I showed you in WHY EVERY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION POLL FOR 2016 YOU SHALL SEE OR HEAR WILL BE WRONG, because of the electoral college, a presidential election is 57 elections actually and not one. So to project a winner, for full accuracy, a scientific poll would need 57 surveys, each done around the same time, on the same day. For a margin of error of ±4%, each survey would need 784 completed questionnaires. That totals to 44,688!

The math: 784 surveys × 57 = 44,688

For the 2012 election, to predict Obama as the winner, a scientific pollster needed to survey 23 states with a cumulative questionnaire count of 13,800 before hitting the magic number of electoral college votes Obama need to gain to win the election.

Since no one has the resources to survey accurately, all of the claims regarding every poll will be fabricated as such polls cannot be scientific.

So what can we do? We can leverage the actual results from the primaries to make smart guesses.

First, here are a few interesting facts learned thus far. First, for every 10 voters who have gone for Sanders and O'Malley, another 15 have gone for Hillary. While on the Republican side, for every 10 who scattered their votes among the other candidates, another seven stepped up and voted for Trump.

Comparing their respective vote totals by state, head-to-head, each have won 12 states against the other. Yet, the picture takes on another look if we assume Hillary Clinton will get 80% of the voters who voted for Sanders and if we assume Trump will 80% of the voters who voted for the myriad of loser Republican candidates.

And if we assume both Clinton and Trump will grab 80% of the voters who voted for the other candidates within their respective parties, thus far, the electoral map reveals Trump dominance. Should the trend hold, it is likely Trump's election to lose rather than Hillary's to win.

And here is how the picture looks on the map.

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For states where parties held primaries and caucuses thus far, Louisiana and North Carolina are in play. Independent voters in November will decide the outcome for these states. Hillary's other states already won likely are locks for her. All states that Trump has won likely are locks for him in November.

And here is a best guess final outcome (March 17, 2016).

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Here is the best guess as of May 10, 2016: