I've have told you more than once to forget the head-to-head polls touted by your favorite TV stations. Those polls are wrong because those polls fail to account for the electoral college. Because of the electoral college, a presidential election is 57 elections actually and not one. So to project a winner, for full accuracy, a scientific poll would need 57 surveys, each done around the same time, on the same day. For a margin of error of ±4%, each survey would need 784 completed questionnaires. That totals to 44,688!
The math: 784 surveys × 57 = 44,688
If you are interested in the science, read my work: WHY EVERY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION POLL FOR 2016 YOU SHALL SEE OR HEAR WILL BE WRONG.
Since no one has the resources to survey accurately, all of the claims regarding every poll will be fabricated as such polls cannot be scientific. However, we can leverage the actual results from the primaries to make smart guesses.
As I showed you in CLINTON VS TRUMP. WHO IS WINNING THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE, Trump might win the presidency in a tight electoral college race even though Trump will lose the popular vote by a good number over one million. For more on that match up, see below.
However, Trump and capitalism would steamroll over Bernie and socialism. Here is where it stands right now between them.
And here is a best guess final outcome (as of May 18, 2016).
With Clinton as the Democratic Party candidate, Clinton wins Louisiana and North Carolina, easily. Clinton could win it all if one state flipped her way. Clinton should only campaign in a handful of states, which should be seen as the battleground states for 2016.
In these states, Hillary bested Trump in straight up vote count — Michigan (+93,044), Wisconsin (+46,397), Virginia (+147,398), Georgia (+41,301), South Carolina (+31,663).
Though Trump bested Hillary in straight up vote counts in Ohio (+48,319) and Tennessee (+87,398), Trump had weak support from Republicans in those states. Trump had the weakest support from Republicans in South Carolina (48.2% of the party vote), Virginia (54.2%), Wisconsin (56.3%), Ohio (56.7%), Michigan (62.4%), Georgia (64.8%) and Tennessee (66.2%).
Clinton gets to play offense as it is unlikely that Trump could flip any of her states though the primary season needs to wrap up to be sure about the remaining states. Clinton merely needs to campaign against Trump as being untrustworthy — too many bankruptcies, too many marriages, no political experience — and for the ideals of the Statue of Liberty.
For Trump to win, Trump must go into these battleground states and campaign against Hillary as a homewrecker of jobs through her bad trade deals, bad wars, and too much immigration. As well, Trump must scare would-be voters about losing their guns with the Second Amendment.
In the final analysis, Clinton should focus on two states — Wisconsin and Michigan. She should put all of her chips down on those two states only. Likely though, her gutless team will spread Hillary thin.
The Clinton vs Trump map looks like this right now (as of May 18, 2016):