Commercial paper (CP) consists of short-term, promissory notes issued primarily by corporations. Maturities range up to 270 days but average about 30 days. Many companies use CP to raise cash needed for current transactions, and many find it to be a lower-cost alternative to bank loans.The discounting of commercial paper by commercial bankers and the re-discounting of that paper by Federal Reserve district bankers is a major aspect of commercial banking under the Federal Reserve system. When commercial paper discounting is on the decline, so too is the economy.
As you can see, commercial paper gives a fairly good indicator of a pending crash in the economy. In True Dollars, peak CP hit the week of August 6, 2007 and crashed the week of September 3, 2007. The crash in True Dollar commercial paper came three months before peak GDP.
In spite of all the recovery talk and supposed economic expansion talk, though rarely do you hear anyone loudly talking about a supposed expansion, there hasn't been any expansion.
It looks as if only now the economy has hit bottom and the long reckoning has come to an end.