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Monday, December 15, 2014

ASEAN SPOTLIGHT: THAILAND. TRUE GDP. THD.



Thais have seen an uptick in True GDP of late stemming the ebb of their GDP tide.

After the Thai economy hit a low Q1 2014 from the peak Q1 2008 peak, True GDP has grown 2.3% growing at the yearly rate of 4.7% over two quarters.

With 21 years of GDP and cash exchange rate data, measured by quarters, the Thai economy has grown 63.1% of the time and has shrunk 36.9% of the time.

The longest growth streak lasted 15 quarters between Q4 1993 and Q2 1997. The longest decline stretch lasted seven quarters between Q1 2011 and Q3 2012.

True GDP hit a peak Q1 2008. From the peak to the low, True GDP declined -7.0% a year, falling -35.3% over six years.  Since then, growth in True GDP has cut the loss to -33.9% with a yearly loss rate of -6.4%.










The iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF hit a peak in Q2 2013 at GW$8.45 and hit a low in Q1 2014 of GW$5.48 having fallen -35.2% and at the yearly rate of -43.9%. Since hitting the low, the ETF has risen 12.4%, rising at the yearly rate of 1.2%.

ABOUT THE ASEAN


The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a political and economic organisation of ten Southeast Asia countries. The six biggest economies comprise the ASEAN SIX — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam. The remaining four countries are Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, and Burma.

With more than US$2.3 trillion combined GDP, ASEAN ranks as the seventh largest economy  behind the US, China, Japan, Germany, France and the United Kingdom. ASEAN has more than 600 million (8.8% of the world's population).

ASEAN FREE TRADE


ASEAN has free trade agreements (FTA) with China Japan, India, Australia, New Zealand, and , Korea. ASEAN-India bilateral trade crossed the $70 billion target in 2012.

The ASEAN Capital Markets Forum (ACMF) seeks to integrate the stock markets of Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore; harmonize commercial standards; and harmonize commercial regulation.

The ASEAN Single Aslviation Market (ASEAN-SAM) is an effort to establish a unified aviation market by 2015. Already, there is visa-free travel for citizens of ASEAN countries.