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IS PRESIDENT TRUMP'S 2020 RE-ELECTION IN JEOPARDY? BATTLEGROUND STATES 2020. ELECTORAL COLLEGE OUTLOOK. 2020 STRATEGIES FOR TRUMP AND THE DEMOCRATS.


One result from the 2018 Midterm Elections that no one else has caught is the effect the demographics and perhaps policy upon the disposition of voters toward President Trump.






Goodbye Arizona and Iowa


As you can see from the table below, the Republicans have lost Arizona and Iowa.



Arizona now is a likely state for the Democrats in the 2020 Election for the Presidency. This should fail to surprise no one as Arizona has an ever growing mestizo population along with a growing population of retirees from California, Illinois and New York.

The population of Arizona recently has gone majority-minority. Once that happens to a state, it becomes game over for Republicans. Only Texas has been the exception, for now.

The loss of Iowa likely is a rejection of President Trump trade policies, which have been perceived as threats to corn - soybean growers, as well as immigration policies, since Iowa farmers gain unearned profits with their ongoing practice of hiring illegal aliens, mostly from Mexico and other Central American countries.



It is in Iowa where US citizen Mollie Tibbetts was murdered, likely, by illegal alien mestizo and Mexican national Cristhian Bahena Rivera.

Many Iowans have shrugged over the murder and simply see such misdeeds as the eventual cost of doing business.



Hello Wisconsin

In 2016, Wisconsin flipped to Trump, 47.2 to 46.5. Only seven-tenths of a percent separated the state into the President Trump win column. With the midterms, the residents of Wisconsin seem to have shifted toward the Republicans and President Trump.

Dairy farmers of Wisconsin will benefit greatly with the United States - Mexico - Canada (USMCA) trade agreement. Under NAFTA, Canadians restricted the import of USA dairy into Canada. With USMCA, Wisconsin dairy farmers can now sell much more into Canada.


As you can see from this table, the states, which the Democratic Party machine control remain quite loyal to the party. Only Maine is a toss-up.






The 2020 Battlegrounds

Right now, this is my first best guess based on the 2018 Midterms, which I am relying on the House outcome as a proxy for voter sentiment. 

As in 2016, President Trump is behind in the Electoral College at the start. 



The likely Democratic Party states are these: Colorado (57.1%), New Jersey (58.3%),  Minnesota (62.5%), Virginia (63.6%), New Mexico (66.7%), Washington (70.0%) and Illinois (72.2%). Arizona (55.6%) has joined the ranks of likely Democratic Party states.

Winning Colorado, Maine, Michigan and Pennsylvania

With Arizona likely gone and Iowa almost likely gone, the President cannot lose Florida have much hope to win the election. If Florida were to go to the Democratic challenger, then President Trump would need to win over at least Coloradans or Minnesotans over as well as Michiganders, Pennsylvanians and Mainers.  

Keep in mind, Colorado has become a likely Dem state. Also, the President won but one of the two split electors of Maine in 2016.



The President could get himself re-elected even if he lost Florida and Maine providing he could persuade any of the New Jerseyans, Virginians or , Washingtonians as well as Michiganders and Pennsylvanians.

Winning with at New Jersey, Michigan and Pennsylvania



Winning with Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Sure, Arizona has tipped into the likely Dem camp. The President could try to woo back Arizonans. Yet, with the bad blood over now dead disloyal senator McCain and the departure of disloyal senator Flake, the chance of doing so seems unlikely.

Nonetheless, the President could get himself re-elected with Arizona, Pennsylvania and Michigan, even if he loses Florida.


Winning with Florida and Pennsylvania

With a Florida win, the President would need only either win Pennsylvania or a combo of Michigan and Maine. 



2020 Strategies for the Democrats

The Democrats should put forth a moderate candidate, someone who seems rational, together and experienced. They will make their work harder if they nominate the likes of Elizabeth Warren or Kamala Harris.  While those women have name recognition and might be popular with celebrities and billionaires, the problem will be to convince Floridians to accept either one.

Yet it is all too likely that Democrats will go all-in with a radical candidate, either a female or a male of any of the colored races. 

Back in late 2017, Aaron Blake of the Washington Post produced a list of 15 Democratic Party candidates whom he claimed are the top 15 Dem Party nominees. It is a horrible list of unworthy candidates. The list is laden with senators. 


  1. Bernie Sanders, Vermont senator
  2. Joe Biden, ex-Vice President under Obama, ex-US senator from Delaware
  3. Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts senator
  4. Kirsten Gillibrand, New York senator
  5. Kamala D. Harris, California senator
  6. Cory Booker, New Jersey senator
  7. Chris Murphy, Connecticut senator
  8. Jerry Brown, ex-California governor
  9. Sherrod Brown, Ohio senator
  10. Andrew M. Cuomo, New York governor 
  11. Oprah Winfrey, celebrity
  12. Deval Patrick, ex-Massachusetts governor 
  13. Howard Schultz, ex-Starbucks CEO 
  14. Terry McAuliffe, Virginia Governor
  15. Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, actor
Sanders would be a huge mistake. He would lose to President Trump far worse than Hillary Clinton lost. 


None of the presidents who were senators were any good. And of course, Obama was the worst president in American as well as U.S. history.

The list of bad presidents from senators is long: Andrew Jackson, Martin Van Buren, William Henry Harrison, John Tyler, Franklin Pierce, Andrew Johnson, Benjamin Harrison, Warren G. Harding, Harry S. Truman, John F. Kennedy, Richard Nixon, Barack Obama.

The smart picks are either Jerry Brown or Andy Cuomo. Of the two, Brown likely has the greater appeal.

The Democrat candidate ought to focus on winning Florida and Pennsylvania. Their message should be simple:

The Republicans tried to take away your healthcare to leave you to die.
The Democrat will get himself or herself in trouble if he or she makes 2020 a fight about immigration or globalization, i.e., tariff-free trade for the Chinese.

Likewise, global warming / climate change is a loser. Increasingly few believe in such pseudo-science. The upcoming cold winter will further erode belief in such fake science.


2020 Strategies for President Trump


President Trump will find that he has work ahead even in Texas. The President should focus his efforts above the Texas Colorado River since voting districts below that river are solid blue being dominated by liberal mestizos.

The President can leverage his response to Hurricane Harvey that walloped Houston in 2017. Of course, he would be smart to make publicly seen efforts to check up on the re-development of Houston as well as regions hit by hurricanes in 2018, the Carolinas and the Florida panhandle.

The President will need to spend time in Georgia and South Carolina to shore up support and win those states. He can not win the election without those states. As of now, like Texans, the residents of those states are merely likely Trump voters.

The President should spend much more time in Florida at Mar-a-Lago and Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey.  

Even though New Jersey might be even a tougher win than Colorado, the President needs to focus efforts to try to win one of the two states. Yet, winning Florida makes the rest of the work much easier.

The President ought to do more for the residents of Michigan and Pennsylvania as part of his policy actions over the next two years. In fact, most of what the President does over the next to years should be to win over adult residents of the states of Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Jersey and Maine.








To comment about this story or work of the True Dollar Journal, you can @ me through the Fediverse. You can find me @johngritt@freespeechextremist.com

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