Bitcoin maximalists of g/bitcoin on Gab blocked me in late April because I predicted a crash was coming for Bitcoin and it came. Already back then, I proved way back then that Bitcoin IS NOT an inflation hedge.
Bitcoin is speculative foolery, like tech stocks that promise a bright future but lack profits and often have weak sales relative to head count.
As stocks are crashing so too Bitcoin will crash that is, as long as Fed Res central bankers stop buying US Treasury instruments and thus stop their Quantitative Easing super inflation.
Earlier in another work on the TDJ, I estimated of the worth of Bitcoin in 2022 (See: Bitcoin (BTC) is Massively Over-Priced in 2022. BTC Still is Not Digital Gold. Where is the Ukraine-Russia War Premium? The Speculation Range for Bitcoin). Based on the sales of illegal activities world wide, a fair estimate for BTC is nearer to $4,367.03. The article goes through the reasoning for that price. You should read it.
Also, that work has links to my original prediction / crash article of 2021.
The long run price of BTC is far closer to $0 than it is to $100,000. If blockchain tokens are here to stay, the winner will be one atop of a smart blockchain with super fast transaction times to support transaction flow through that competes with ATM / credit cards and is based on Proof of Stake or a new consensus mechanism not yet devised.
Bitcoin has none of those features. BTC settlement is painfully slow. BTC runs atop a on-programmable blockchain and hence it is not a smart blockchain. Consensus is done by Proof of Work, a process that governments are looking to ban owing to the electricity requirements for it.
The crazy run-up in BTC price especially from 2018 until now came strictly from an inflow of institutional bettors funded by expectations of continual quantitative easing. Once those QE stimmy dollars began flowing into goods rather than speculative instruments, the reality of the future poor state of the USA economy began to sink into the minds of professional speculators.
As long as there is a market of dollars for BTC, BTC will have a price. What that long run price will be likely will look far different than what it has looked like between 2019 and 2022.
There are some lucky ones who tossed $10 in BTC back in 2010 and who sold at the top near $63,000 thus making them actual millionaires. Then again, some people became rich on speculation on Beany Babies in the 1980s.
Now, if Fed Res central bankers abandon their effort to end quantitative easing, you can expect a resumption in the rise of the price BTC along with its usual margin-driven speculation inner cycles. As always though, current dollar quotations are far different than buying power. Likely, $45,000 one year from now will buy much less than $45,000 right now.
Gab It
