In January 2020, before Covid-19, total dollars in circulation and demand deposits were $3,344.6 trillion. By January 2022, that sum rose to $7055.6 trillion! That is a 110.95% growth in only two years!
Ceteris paribus, one should expect prices to have risen that much on the same output of new goods and services for sale.
So one should have expected a price for WTI crude to be $65.51 in January 2022 over the $59.10 price of January 2020. In fact, it rang in at $77.85, which likely already reflected a risk premium owing to the Biden Administration. Thus, the price of WTI rose 31.85% between January 2020 and January 2022.
The Russian so-called "special military operation" began on Thursday, February 24. Today, the price of WTI at this writing is $110.23. The price before that operation began rang in $92.10. So the run up between January 2022 and the eve of special ops, the price grew 18.3%. The war itself has pushed the price 19.69%.
The true push in prices has been excess bank credit put into circulation by Congress owing to Covid-19 spending while GDP shrank owing to lockdowns. The Ukraine-Russia Conflict of 2022 has been the last leg run up of a trend over the last two years.
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