Keeping Americans' minds focused on Ukraine and Russia, USA Establishment Media have kept Americans blinkered not only from the biggest news of the year but also from what might become the biggest world news story since 9/11 when viewed from years ahead looking back.
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade agreement (FTA) came into effect this year, a FTA that links together 15 Asia-Pacific countries that have 2.3 billion people (29% of world population) and $29 trillion of combined GDP (29% of all economic activity on earth).
The establishment of the RCEP positions the East Asia-Southeast Asia region as the new center of gravity for global commerce. As the world's biggest FTA measured by combined GDP, the RCEP is bigger than the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPATPP), the EU, Mercosur and USMCA, the latter being the revamped NAFTA.
The countries of the largest trade bloc in history are: Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Among Asean members, only Indonesia, Myanmar and the Philippines have yet to submit their RCEP ratification to the Asean Secretariat.
Early Positive Results for Thailand
According to a report published by Vietnam Plus, since going into effect, by the second month, based on estimates taken from exporters' applications, Thailand’s exports have risen by more than 200% to US$35 million.
Pitak Udomwichaiwat, Director-General at the Department of Foreign Trade, said the value was estimated from applications by exporters seeking to exercise their rights under the RCEP agreement.
The biggest value of Thai exports for which the certificate was sought under RCEP was to Japan, totalling 540.36 million baht. Most of the exported goods were canned fish, followed by canned vegetables and textiles.
China was the second highest importer of Thai goods under RCEP at 453.95 million baht and the Republic of Korea was third with export value of 171.21 million baht.
East Asia Heavyweights
The RCEP is the first FTA signed between China, Japan and South Korea. Further, the RCEP is the first multilateral agreement to include China and the first FTA between China and Japan as well as between Japan and South Korea.
Right now, these East Asia heavyweights account for about 24% of total GDP. Their combined yearly trading volume tallies to US$720 billion.
Chinese exporters could benefit from increased exports of textiles, chemical and plastic products to Japan as well as electrical machinery and fabricated metal to South Korea.
As well, the Japanese will eliminate tariffs on 56% of farm products imported from China and 49% of those from South Korea, excluding rice, wheat, beef, dairy products and sugar products.
Japanese auto parts exporters stand to gain from significant exports to China with the elimination of tariffs.
Korean exporters will benefit from tariff reductions on automobile parts, steel products and electronic products.
Expected Results
The RCEP could raise trade among members by $428 billion and add $209 billion to incomes by 2030. The RCEP could reduce trade with non-members by $48 billion by 2030.
Analysis by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam will benefit the most from the deal, which will add between $2-4 billion each year to their respective economies by 2030.
RCEP members are projected to gain $174 billion in real income by 2030, equivalent to 0.4% of the members' aggregate GDP. China, Korea and Japan will benefit the most, with likely gains of $85 billion for China, $48 billion for Japan, and $23 billion for Korea.
The Overseas Chinese Effect
Could RCEP Give Rise to Asiacentrism and the Asian Century?
Far-reaching positive effects could come from RCEP notably East Asian (China, Japan, South Korea) interdependence, which could reduce any military tensions among these countries. As well, the RCEP could lead to a giant Asia-Pacific economic ecosystem centered on China. RCEP could reorient trade and economic ties away from global linkages toward regionally focused relationships in East Asia.
In short, the RCEP could be one of pivots of future history currently going unnoticed.
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