As I wrote in my work and published on February 11, 2016, WHY EVERY PRSIDENTIAL ELECTION POLL FOR 2016 YOU SHALL SEE OR HEAR WILL BE WRONG, I explained how scientific public opinion polling works for presidential elections. I should know, I once worked as the Director of Public Opinion and Marketing Research at a mid-market newspaper after having studied the subject of advertising and marketing research while working upon my master's degree under the famous ad man, Harry Darling, while having matriculated at the S.I. Newhouse School of Public Communications of Syracuse University.
The screenshot reveals all that you need to know why the USA Today's "exclusive poll" is wrong. All they have done is ask the opinions of 1,000 people, which can not be projected to a universe of voters.
So why is the USA Today's poll unscientific and hence useless, well, I will quote myself at length:
Pollsters use a totally wrong, unscientific method. Typically, they survey between 700 and 1,000 people chosen randomly. Let's say these 1,000 people get chosen by equal distribution, that is, 20 in each state.No one can project the results from a mere 20 persons to the universe of voters in any state. Thus, the number of surveys completed would be too small. Every statistician worth his salt should know this truth.However, there is a far more damning reason why you should denounce all polls being foisted upon you. Because of the electoral college, the presidential election is fifty eight (58) separate elections and requires 58 surveys for full coverage to predict the full results. An accurate poll must account for the electoral college since presidential election doesn't get decided by the popular vote.There is one election in each of 48 states that have winner-take-all elections for the electoral college electors and one more for the District of Columbia. Two states, Maine and Nebraska, lack winner-take-all elections. Those states combine for nine elections.
If a pollster did not need to account for the electoral college, to get a margin of error ± 4% would require 784 completed surveys at the 95% confidence level. Yet, because a presidential election is 58 separate elections and not one, proper polling requires 58 polls, each with 784 completed questionnaires for a margin of error of ±4%. That's 48 polls for the all-or-nothing states and nine polls for each electoral district of Maine and Nebraska.For results that have a margin of error ±4% at the 95% confidence anyone surveying would need to complete 45,472 surveys and all on the same day! Otherwise, you don't have a scientifically conducted poll with results that can get projected to the universe of voters.The math: 784 surveys × 58 = 45,472
So for the USA Today's survey, to be scientific and to hit their claimed goal of a margin of error of ±3% at the 95% confidence level, the fake news liars at the USA Today would have needed to survey 65,424 people! Those people could not be merely anyone. They would need to be qualified as likely voters by a method, say, registered since the last election.
So the USA Today is short only by 64,424 completed surveys!
In my cited work, I go through a method, which reduces the needed number of completed surveys based on tallying up electoral college votes to each candidate as enough states get canvassed completely. In the work, I showed how the 2012 election could have predicted the Obama election with 9,000 completed surveys. Still, that is a monumental undertaking to complete 9,000 surveys by random telephone calls all done on the same day and during the same day parts. One would need about 900 survey callers and be willing to pay about $130,000 in wages only to publish one article shown one day that will be read by few hundred thousand people at most given the USA Today's circulation woes these days.
The entire purpose of these fake polls by fake news is to give a fake context upon which to write a story praising and promoting the favored candidate, in this case, Joe Biden, while discouraging the would-be voters of the candidate not wanted by the backers of the fake news, the globalist billionaires. After all, if your preferred candidate is losing, why would you bother to show up to vote?
These kinds of deceptive practices by fake news ought to be criminally illegal and land people in prison to serve lengthy prison sentences.
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