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Saturday, September 10, 2016

GOLD IS UP 20% IN TRUE DOLLARS™. GOLD BUGS HAVE BEEN RIGHT IN 2016.





In dollars, gold has been up in 2016, almost 21%. However, gold is off still 52% from the September 2, 2011, dollar peak of $1,875.25.





What counts is how much stuff you can buy when you sell your gold. It is the True Dollars™ price of gold that counts. The True Dollars price of gold tells a different story.



Gold is down still about 52% over the last years and gold is down about 81% from it is all-time high. As I have shown you in , since gold has been de-monetized, the long-run trend for gold priced in other commodities is downward (see: MORE FOOL'S GOLD: GOLD VS COMMODITIES).

More or less, had you bought gold in 2006, you would be around break even today.




The combo of uncertainty in Fed Res policy combined with uncertainty in who will win the 2016 presidential election could be what has fueled the run up in gold for 2016.

In the long run, until the next banking credit crisis, which is many years away, there will not be major drivers for gold as there were between 2001 and 2011. While future central bankers could err the way Greenspan and Bernanke did when they caused the Greenspan-Bernanke Great Inflation, the greatest credit bubble in the history of mankind, such a mistake will be years away and easy to see.