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Wednesday, October 28, 2015

2015 OCTOBER FOMC MEETING MINUTES DISSECTED. THE YELLEN-CHAIRED COMMITTEE ARE WAITING FOR BETTER DAYS, THE SAME AS YOU.

The jokers at the FOMC — Janet Yellen, William Dudley, Lael Brainard, Charles L. Evans, Stanley Fischer, Dennis Lockhart, Jerome Powell, Daniel Tarullo, and John C. Williams — released their meetings minutes.

A line-by-line critique of the minutes reveals these people tell you nothing. That adults can behave this way and that countless other adults accept such foolery in the 21st century reveals that little progress has happened for mankind.

FOMC: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. 

ME: Define "moderate pace." That can be defined mathematically. Why haven't the FOMC defined it as such?

FOMC: Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing at solid rates in recent months...

ME: Define "solid rates". How many months define "recent months"?

FOMC: ...and the housing sector has improved further...

ME: By how much, exactly? 

FOMC: ...however, net exports have been soft. 

ME: What defines "soft"? Quantify it.

FOMC:  The pace of job gains slowed 

ME: What is the rate?

FOMC:  ...and the unemployment rate held steady. 

ME: Rates can't act and can't hold things. For how long has the rate measured near the same number?

FOMC: Nonetheless, labor market indicators, on balance, show that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. 

ME: Define "underutilization" mathematically.

FOMC: Inflation has continued to run below the Committee’s longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. 

ME: Certainly, inflation doesn't mean rising prices. Prices are an effect and not a cause. Always in the history of commercial banking, inflation has meant too much credit issued by bankers beyond trade needs.

Why would the FOMC want any inflation? The FOMC should want a growth in bank credit and a corresponding greater growth in production output and sales. 

FOMC: Market-based measures of inflation compensation moved slightly lower ...

ME: What? The FOMC measures inflation incorrectly using PCE?

FOMC: ...survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

ME: What survey? Where are the results? What is the methodology?

FOMC: Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. 

ME: Define maximum employment in quantifiable terms. Define price stability in quantifiable terms.

FOMC: The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace... 

ME: Could your expectations be wrong? Define "appropriate policy accommodation." Define "moderate pace" in quantifiable terms.

FOMC: ...with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. 

ME: Which are what exactly in mathematical terms?

FOMC: The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. 

ME: Define the risks. 

FOMC: ...but is monitoring global economic and financial developments. 

ME: That is a non-sequitur.

FOMC: Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term. 

ME: Define near term. Define medium term.

FOMC: ...as the labor market improves further...

ME: So it is going to improve further? By how much? In what way? By wages? Head count?

FOMC: ...and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate. 

ME: When? When does these price declines stop?

FOMC: The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

ME: So what.

FOMC: To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. 

ME: Again, define "maximum employment" and "price stability." 

FOMC: In determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting, the Committee will assess progress–both realized and expected–toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. 

ME: What methodology do FOMC members use for "expected progress?" Do you have a crystal ball?

FOMC: This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. 

ME: List exactly the sources of information.

FOMC: The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market 

ME: What is the quantifIable measure of labor market "improvement"?

FOMC: and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.

ME: Why is 2% the goal? Why not 2.1% or 1.9%? What makes 2% the magical number?

FOMC: The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

ME: Congress requires the Federal Reserve to collateralize every dollar in circulation. Law is forcing you to do so. And since you have led to 71% more dollars in circulation since June 2008, you are required by law to buy more collateral for those dollars.

FOMC: When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. 

ME: There is no such thing as a balanced approach. A rise in the FFR target isn't balanced. It's headed in one direction. The rate of target rises can be measured and thus it can be a measured approach but not a balanced one.

FOMC: The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

ME: So after seven years of significant intervention by the FOMC, your actions have failed to bring up employment and inflation to mandate-consistent levels? Why do you even exist?

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Here is the real translation of what the FOMC members have said:

We're waiting for the future, the same as you. We have no control over what happens. Clearly, merely adding cash into circulation fails to grow an economy. However, we don't know what else to do.

Eventually, in spite of ourselves, the economy will recover and then we will seem to be right.