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Wednesday, May 13, 2015

IS TRUE ECONOMIC GROWTH AT LONG LAST COMING SOON TO THE U.S. ECONOMY? MAYBE.

The pessimists seem quite down on the U.S. economy. However, these pessimists rely on nominal GDP stats and the quite dubious real GDP stats from the Census bureau.

One well-known pessimist, a brokerage firm operator also who peddles gold believes a spate of bad numbers will translate into Q2 GDP numbers lower than Q1, a new round of quantitative easing and dollar that buys less than it does now, especially against cash from other banking systems. Another well-known pessimist, a stocks salesman who is a popular financial blogger has called for a recession.



The U.S economy can't go into recession because at least through Q1 2015, the economy has been shrinking since the last growth peak of Q4 2007. Likely, many disbelieve my claim. Yet, in true terms, after removing the effects of monetary accretion, the economy has been shrinking.



At a point sometime in the near future, the shrinking is going to stop. When it does, the economy is going to take off and along with it, the prices of stocks and commodities.

We might be nearing that point given these charts.

When Americans were in true hard times, there were slightly more than nine out-of-work Americans for every American hired. Have a look.



At the peak of hard times, there were almost 13 Americans clawing for every new job opening. Now, there are about four truly unemployed Americans for everyone new job opening.



During the peak of hard times, there were about 41 Americans working under supervision for every working American who found himself or herself laid off or fired. By the end of March 2015, that had grown by more than twice as much.



As a contrarian of sorts, I'd say now is the time to look at depressed commodities like timber and steel. Likely, now is the time to look at firms and industries that have been out of favor during the great dollar-figure run-up of the S&P 500.



The last time I looked, Americans were living in great times to buy houses. Low rates plus jobs equals house buying. I'd expect new construction to take off if present employment trends hold.

I look forward to the Q2 GDP numbers. For now, I say, let's go!