Wednesday, December 3, 2014
THE USA ECONOMY ADVANCE LIKELY HAS BEGUN AT LONG LAST
Although blogging as all know it began around 1999, blogging didn't take off until 2004. With a growing economy, many jumped on the financial blogging bandwagon, including the pessimists and other associated cranks.
Since Banking crisis of 2008 caused by the massive inflation undertaken by former Federal Reserve central bankers Greenspan and Bernanke, these perpetual downers and cranks have earned their their readership by bashing the Federal Reserve and its figureheads (Janet Yellen, William Dudley, Richard Fisher) as well as Wall Street, its major commercial banks, its major financial banks and their figureheads.
Along the way, bloggers have coined anti-establishment heroes, who, in truth, are part of the establishment such as Elizabeth Warren, the former egghead from academia and the current a senator from Massachusetts. As well, these bloggers stick together in an unwritten alliance, referencing each other's published works. For more on Elizabeth Warren, you can read all you ever need to know about her right here on Bizarro Theater: POOR-MINDED ELIZABETH WARREN NEEDS HELP WITH REALITY, THE REALITY OF TRADE, PROPERTY AND PROFIT.
Most amusingly, many of these cranks and perpetual downers have peddled buying gold, you know, in case the zombie apocalypse, or at least the banking version of that comes.
Like everything else, gold rose in price fueled by buyers flush with credit along with the massive inflation fueled economy.
Peak GDP hit Q4 2007. Gold buyers were slow to catch that signal, so slow in fact they kept buying until March of 2008. And then as deflation began of the Greenspan-Bernanke Bubble, the biggest credit bubble in the history of mankind, true gold fell right with it.
True gold didn't resume its price run until it became clear Americans were experiencing a banking crisis. That price run began in December 2008. True Gold continued to rise until hitting a true peak in September 2011.
Since then True Gold has fallen and has fallen hard. True Gold is down -50.2% having fallen at a rate of -19.8% a year.
With that performance, it should be clear that gold is a bad bet. If you have greater curiosity, check out my work right here on Bizarro Theater, IS THERE EVER REASON TO BUY GOLD?
All the same, here is what the True GDP picture looks like for the USA.
The most recent low in True GDP happened this year, in Q1 2014. From peak True GDP until the most recent low, True GDP fell -41.8%, falling at a yearly rate of -7.7%.
Since hitting that Q1 2014 low, True GDP has grown 2.52% growing at a yearly rate of 5.2%.
Only in four quarters — Q2 2008, Q4 2009, Q2 2010, and Q2 2013 — was there any growth in True GDP over the preceding quarter.
Looking at the next chart, you can see that Public Sector True GDP crossed over Private Sector True GDP in Q1 2009. That is never good for the economy.
In the great, long, slow deflation of the Greenspan-Bernanke Inflation, the longest decline stretch happened over the 11 quarters between Q3 2010 and Q1 2013.
Even more telling is this chart. The right end of the chart shows growing Private True GDP has lifted True GDP growth over the last two quarters.
It's looks like it is time to become optimistic about the economy. If I were a betting man, I would bet the reckoning is over. Enough individuals and firms have righted themselves. It is time for true growth, sustained growth.
It should be noted by everyone the earth over that neither the U.S. Congress nor central bankers of the Federal Reserve did anything to cause the economy to recover. No one can take credit for fixing the economy after almost seven years.
Those who do are liars. Those who claim others have fixed the economy are little better than toadies.
If only the Federal Reserve would publish Commercial Clearings on a timely basis. Then we would have confirmation of sustained True GDP growth.
For more on the importance of Automated Clearings, check out THE SECRETS OF AUTOMATED CLEARINGS, GDP AND THE ECONOMY. RECOVERY? WHEN? right here on Bizarro Theater.