Today, minions at the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department of Labor released their Employment Situation Summary report for September 2015.
Commentators everywhere have claimed today's Jobs Report is a disaster.
Reuters — U.S. Job Growth Stumbles, Raising Doubts on Economy
"U.S. employers slammed the brakes on hiring over the last two months, raising new doubts the economy is strong enough for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by the end of this year."
New York Times — Lackluster Jobs Data Raise Concerns on Economy’s Course
"Employers added a mere 142,000 jobs in September, the government said Friday, casting a shadow on the nation’s economy in a Labor Department report that analysts variously described as “dreadful,” “a body blow” and “grim.”"CNBC — Job Creation Misses Big in September
"The U.S. economy created 142,000 jobs in September, a number that missed expectations and could cool expectations that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates soon."MarketWatch — U.S. Economy Creates Just 142,000 New Jobs in September
"The number of new jobs created in September slowed sharply for the second straight month, raising the specter that pace of hiring in the U.S. has tapered off amid fresh worries about a weaker global economy and political infighting in Washington."Seeking Alpha — The U.S. Economy Is In Big Trouble
"Let's just get this out of the way now…The September jobs report was absolutely abysmal. The U.S. added 142,000 jobs last month, widely missing estimates for 200,000. What's more, August's lackluster report was revised lower by 40,000 to 136,000. Back-to-back weak jobs reports are the start of an ugly trend for the American economy."
Contrary to mainstreamers, pundits and the confused, this report is strong and likely portends to a Fed Funds Target Rte hike by December. First, the jobless rate, which I've written about (see: THE JOBLESS RATE, THE TRUE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE) fell -6.1% month over month.
And the strict jobless rate fell by -4.1%.
Many have tried to make much ado about the decline in employment number from the month before. However, declines in from August to September are typical for America and not the exception. Since 1948, September employment has fallen almost 87% of the time from August.
Think about it. College students and (some) moms quit their summer jobs as their roles shift in September for back-to-school life.
Since 1948, August-September have declined 83.1% of the time, the second worst two-month period. All should have been surprised if September would have been on the rise and if the two-month period of August-September would have been on the rise.
The True Yield Curve, though inverted still — the short end higher than the long end — the long end has been lifting higher as have rates for all maturities in recent weeks. Recent price action of oil suggests a recovery could be underway (see: BRENT AND WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE TRUE DOLLARS™ PRICE ACTION. HINTS OF A REAL RECOVERY AT LONG LAST?)
As well, As well, Loans and Leases chart for all U.S. Commercial banks as seen in shows a flattening steady pattern on the right. That suggests a bottom has been hit at long last. In fact, the bottom began forming Q1 2014 and held by Q4 2014 (see: OBAMA, YELLEN, BERNANKE AND MANY OTHERS HAVE LIED, SOVIET-STYLE ABOUT THE FALSE RECOVERY, COUNTLESS TIMES. YOU ARE STILL LIVING IN THE GREATEST DEPRESSION ).
New Residential Construction data adds to the pile of proof of a likely rise in the target rate desired by the FOMC for the Fed Funds Rate. One way to look at New Construction is the head count to starts. You want to see a downward trend and in this chart you do.
The flip way of looking at New Residential Construction is the number of starts for each potential buyer. You want to see that rising and you do. Starts per potential buyer has risen 1.28 times since hitting a low at the end of January 2009.
Though there might be a recession priced in current dollars ahead, it's likely the economy has hit bottom at long last and has begun to advance. If that is so, you should expect a Fed Funds target rate hike in December. It won't matter much as it seems the actual rate has been rising already.
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