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earnings"},{"term":"primaries"},{"term":"privacy"},{"term":"private"},{"term":"privatization"},{"term":"productivity"},{"term":"products"},{"term":"professors"},{"term":"prognostication"},{"term":"prohibition"},{"term":"propaganda stunts"},{"term":"propane"},{"term":"prosperity"},{"term":"prostitution"},{"term":"protests"},{"term":"pseudo"},{"term":"pseudo-intellectual"},{"term":"psy ops"},{"term":"punk rockers"},{"term":"puppetry"},{"term":"races"},{"term":"racist groups"},{"term":"rail"},{"term":"range"},{"term":"rankings"},{"term":"real dollars"},{"term":"realignment"},{"term":"realism"},{"term":"recessions"},{"term":"reciprocity"},{"term":"reckoning"},{"term":"red pill"},{"term":"redistribution"},{"term":"reggae"},{"term":"renewable energy"},{"term":"reports"},{"term":"reputation"},{"term":"risk"},{"term":"robbery"},{"term":"safety"},{"term":"salaries"},{"term":"salvation"},{"term":"sanction"},{"term":"satellite"},{"term":"satellite TV"},{"term":"savings identity"},{"term":"scarcity"},{"term":"school"},{"term":"scientific polling"},{"term":"second quarter"},{"term":"securities"},{"term":"self"},{"term":"self-determination"},{"term":"separatists"},{"term":"seppuku"},{"term":"service"},{"term":"sexes"},{"term":"sexism"},{"term":"sexual harassment"},{"term":"shark"},{"term":"shills"},{"term":"shootings"},{"term":"shorts"},{"term":"signals"},{"term":"sin"},{"term":"sitcoms"},{"term":"skills"},{"term":"slavery"},{"term":"sloth"},{"term":"smartphones"},{"term":"social change"},{"term":"social control"},{"term":"social democracy"},{"term":"social media"},{"term":"soda"},{"term":"sovereign"},{"term":"special reports"},{"term":"speeches"},{"term":"spirituality"},{"term":"sports franchises"},{"term":"stadiums"},{"term":"standard"},{"term":"statue of liberty"},{"term":"status message"},{"term":"steel"},{"term":"strategy"},{"term":"strawman"},{"term":"streaming services"},{"term":"streaming sticks"},{"term":"stupidity"},{"term":"success"},{"term":"suffering"},{"term":"surgeon general"},{"term":"surveillance"},{"term":"tariffs"},{"term":"technology"},{"term":"test"},{"term":"the West"},{"term":"the future"},{"term":"theory"},{"term":"third quarter"},{"term":"trackers"},{"term":"traffic"},{"term":"transsexuality"},{"term":"travel"},{"term":"unemployment rate"},{"term":"units"},{"term":"urban whites"},{"term":"velocity"},{"term":"viewership"},{"term":"wage gap"},{"term":"wars"},{"term":"weather"},{"term":"whimsy"},{"term":"white genocide"},{"term":"white males"},{"term":"work"},{"term":"world government"},{"term":"yield curve"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"TRUE DOLLAR JOURNAL"},"subtitle":{"type":"html","$t":"Leading Republic Restorationists."},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/truedollarjournal.blogspot.com\/feeds\/posts\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/2938080886449362778\/posts\/default\/-\/Donald+Trump?alt=json-in-script\u0026max-results=6"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/truedollarjournal.blogspot.com\/search\/label\/Donald%20Trump"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/2938080886449362778\/posts\/default\/-\/Donald+Trump\/-\/Donald+Trump?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=7\u0026max-results=6"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Anonymous"},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/15342121843435066933"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"22"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"6"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2938080886449362778.post-7137504829886184101"},"published":{"$t":"2020-11-03T16:24:00.005-08:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-11-03T16:34:10.203-08:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"2020"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"2020 Presidential Election"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Donald J. Trump"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Donald Trump"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Joe Biden"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"President Trump"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"True Dollar Journal"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"USA Presidential Election Day 2020 Scoreboard"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Ch3 style=\"text-align: left;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EProjected Winner\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/h3\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E  \u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Ciframe height=\"370\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vQxO12D5oabelkfIM_F-DMmGTSy6Ga2HYfWgc4YG11iChGnKR6XxlB-oSdh6P-3pJngKGL0RCeBCvaJ\/pubhtml?gid=1708544635\u0026amp;single=true\u0026amp;widget=true\u0026amp;headers=false\" width=\"640\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ch3 style=\"text-align: left;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EModel to Actual (Blended 75k Model)\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/h3\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E  \u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Ciframe height=\"480\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vQxO12D5oabelkfIM_F-DMmGTSy6Ga2HYfWgc4YG11iChGnKR6XxlB-oSdh6P-3pJngKGL0RCeBCvaJ\/pubhtml?gid=1772849611\u0026amp;single=true\u0026amp;widget=true\u0026amp;headers=false\" width=\"640\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/2938080886449362778\/posts\/default\/7137504829886184101"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/2938080886449362778\/posts\/default\/7137504829886184101"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/truedollarjournal.blogspot.com\/2000\/11\/usa-presidential-election-day-2020.html","title":"USA Presidential Election Day 2020 Scoreboard"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Unknown"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2938080886449362778.post-6342953707996672991"},"published":{"$t":"2020-10-24T13:54:00.006-07:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-10-28T14:00:09.527-07:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"2020"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"2020 Presidential Election"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Donald J. Trump"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Donald Trump"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Joe Biden"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"President Trump"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"presidential election"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"True Dollar Journal forecasts"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"2020 Presidential Election True Dollar Journal Forecast. Donald Trump Wins. Biden Runs Against the Wrong Opponent and Loses. "},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EWith ten days away until the Election Day, 2020, more than enough polling data has come forth to forecast a President Trump re-election on November 3, 2020.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Ch3 style=\"text-align: left;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003ENational Polls are 100% B.S.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/h3\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EBack in 2016, I shocked the world by telling the world that national polls would be wrong (see my work: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/truedollarjournal.blogspot.com\/2016\/02\/why-every-presidential-election-poll.html\"\u003EWHY EVERY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION POLL FOR 2016 YOU SHALL SEE OR HEAR WILL BE WRONG\u003C\/a\u003E). I did so again in 2020\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E(see my work: \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/truedollarjournal.blogspot.com\/2020\/06\/well-it-is-election-time-again-and-fake.html\"\u003EWell It is Election Time, Again, and Fake News USA Today Is Touting an Unscientific National Poll Claiming Trump is Behind, Again. When Will They Ever Learn?\u003C\/a\u003E)\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EAs a longtime data analytics professional with an graduate-level academic background in public opinion polling, I know that national polls for US presidential elections are unscientific and thus no results can be projected to the universe of voters.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Ch3 style=\"text-align: left;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EState Polls Suffer from Serious Errors\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/h3\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EMost do not realize that state polls suffer from significant flaws if taken at face value, as presented. Polling firms get it wrong because they fail to pull from a random sample of likely voters from the way populations are distributed in respective states. In short, pollsters take too much sample from mega urban areas and ignore polling residents in rural and suburban areas.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EWhen pollsters do this, they merely are surveying urban voters and particularly, registered Democrats. A study of cities with populations of 75,000 or more will show that all are mostly occupied by voters registered as Democrats.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EYet, many states, the suburban \/ rural population taken in total is a significant percentage of total population.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003ESo while you can take state polls to mean how voters in bigger cities will vote, you can not trust those results for statewide voting.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Ch3 style=\"text-align: left;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EJoe Biden's True Opponent for 2020\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/h3\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EJoe Biden has run an anti-Trump campaign. In fact, the Dems entire strategy since 2016 has been one labeled as hashtag The Resistance.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EThus Joe has been focused on being the anti-Trump rather than focusing on what he should.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EIn the USA, Dem voters outnumber GOPher voters, Thirty-percent of registered voters are registered as Dems while about twenty-four percent are registered as Republicans.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EThe key to winning for Biden is to increase Dem turnout in 2020 over Hillary's pitiful performance in 2016. In the main, Hillary lost because many Dems did not want her and opted to stay home. Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate (see my work: \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/truedollarjournal.blogspot.com\/2017\/11\/the-big-lie-that-will-not-die-russians.html\"\u003ETHE BIG LIE THAT WILL NOT DIE: THE RUSSIANS HACKED THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. HILLARY CLINTON WAS A HORRIBLE CANDIDATE. THE NUMBERS DO NOT LIE.\u003C\/a\u003E)\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ch3\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EThe 2016 True Dollar Journal Forecast Model Predicted the Trump Victory\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/h3\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EIn 2016, I had the luxury of voting incidence data from primaries when both candidates, Hillary Clinton and Donald J. Trump were not incumbents. That meant, likely, expressed voter incidence in the primaries would be the best source of data to forecast a winner.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EMy model came in a scant seven electoral votes short of predicting Donald Trump as the winner (see my work:\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/truedollarjournal.blogspot.com\/2016\/03\/hillary-clinton-vs-donald-trump-real.html\"\u003EHILLARY CLINTON VS DONALD TRUMP, THE REAL NUMBERS. TRUMP IS WINNING).\u003C\/a\u003E\u0026nbsp;I stuck by that call in this work:\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/truedollarjournal.blogspot.com\/2016\/05\/bernie-danish-wannabe-socialist-versus.html\"\u003E  Bernie the Danish-Wannabe Socialist Versus Donald the American Capitalist. Who Would Win the Electoral College? And What Will Be the Battleground States in Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump.\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ch3 style=\"text-align: left;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EThe True Dollar Journal Forecast for 2020\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/h3\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-qOxGI04Z10A\/X5ZCAFXPGwI\/AAAAAAAA3pU\/7l60oQ17SjIf40w5nNtI14dsX-cqrRXUQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s987\/25-Oct-2020-23%253A08%253A51.070097-04%253A00.png\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"673\" data-original-width=\"987\" height=\"436\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-qOxGI04Z10A\/X5ZCAFXPGwI\/AAAAAAAA3pU\/7l60oQ17SjIf40w5nNtI14dsX-cqrRXUQCLcBGAsYHQ\/w640-h436\/25-Oct-2020-23%253A08%253A51.070097-04%253A00.png\" width=\"640\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003ESo how did I generate this map?\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EThe model assumes pollsters almost exclusively survey urban voters.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EThe model assumes the 2020 rural vote will be the same as the 2016 rural vote.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003ES\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003Eo I break out the vote totals in states as 75,000 or less as non-urban\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E(which I call rural for easier means)\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003Eand 75001 and up as urban. Then I\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003Ecalculate an average of \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/epolls\/latest_polls\/president\/#\"\u003Ethe latest state polls published at Real Clear Politics over the last several months\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp;Using the average for each state,\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EI apply the percentages for Trump and Biden to the 2016\u0026nbsp; urban vote tally for each state.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EIn summary,\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Col style=\"text-align: left;\"\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003ERural people will vote in 2020 the same as in 2016\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EThe 2020 state polls are really urban polls for the respective states\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EThe percentages from the 2020 state polls apply to the 2016 urban votes cast\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ol\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EIf I am right that pollsters are randomly grabbing respondents mostly, if not exclusively from urban areas, an increase of urban voters for President Trump, even though he loses by the polls, actually is a win for President Trump\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003Ewhen comparing Biden's take relative to Hillary's 2016 take.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EAn increase in urban votes for President Trump\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003Emight suggest this election will be the one where blacks shock the USA by not supporting the Dem candidate almost exclusively.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EKeep in mind, President Trump is not facing a major third party drain as he did in 2016 with Gary Johnson in the race.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E \u003Cdiv\u003E  \u003Ciframe height=\"480\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vQxO12D5oabelkfIM_F-DMmGTSy6Ga2HYfWgc4YG11iChGnKR6XxlB-oSdh6P-3pJngKGL0RCeBCvaJ\/pubhtml?gid=220427816\u0026amp;single=true\u0026amp;widget=true\u0026amp;headers=false\" width=\"640\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003ENotes:\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E1. Since Nebraska splits electors, the data needs to be updated to reflect that, hence, the total electoral college tally as it stands is short 3 electoral votes. Time permitting, this will be fixed before election day.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E2. For some states, no polls exist. An assumption is made to assign (100%) to one of the candidates. Most often, this is to Joe Biden.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E  \u003Ch3 style=\"text-align: left;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003ESurprising Results\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/h3\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EThe closest states in 2020 will be Arizona, Oregon, Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia and Florida. As well, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Colorado will be fairly close.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003ECalling Oregon close is gutsy and if right, show something spectacular about this model.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EOther surprises from the model have President Trump winning Minnesota and Nevada.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EThe closeness of the race in New Mexico might surprise some, but it fails to surprise me.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E \u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ciframe height=\"480\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vQxO12D5oabelkfIM_F-DMmGTSy6Ga2HYfWgc4YG11iChGnKR6XxlB-oSdh6P-3pJngKGL0RCeBCvaJ\/pubhtml?gid=2069432191\u0026amp;single=true\u0026amp;widget=true\u0026amp;headers=false\" width=\"640\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E     \u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EI know of no one on the Internet nor any professional pundit who forecasts vote counts as I have done here. Let November 3, 2020, come and see who is right.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ch3 style=\"text-align: left;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EUpdates\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/h3\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E25-October-2020: I ran the model with vote data being partitioned at less than 50,000 and 50,001 and greater. Also, formula failed copying errors were caught that resulted in under counts for President Trump.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EAlso, I updated the map and added the table under the heading \u003Cb\u003ESurprising Results\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E28-October-2020: You can check out daily updates right here on the True Dollar Journal:\u0026nbsp;\u003Cb\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/truedollarjournal.blogspot.com\/2000\/10\/2020-usa-presidential-election-forecast.html\"\u003E2020 USA Presidential Election Forecast\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/b\u003E.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Ch3 style=\"text-align: left;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EState Polling Done Right\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/h3\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EIn an accurate survey for any state, a pollster would need to create uniform population groups and then take at random from each group and complete an equal number of questionnaires for each group to get the total completed questionnaire counts. For a margin of error of plus or minus 5% at the 95th confidence level, that means 376 completed questionnaires.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EPolling firms do not do this because the costs incurred to get hold of rural and suburban voters is much higher.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EHaving worked in this business of public opinion polling as a director both for a marketing research firm and for a newspaper, I can tell you that getting the questionnaires done by deadline becomes the goal even knowing that randomness rules need to be broken. Many firms cheat their clients. When the deadline presses, much like fishing, many simply go to where respondents are jumping and the task to complete questionnaires is easiest.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EBut doing so borks the data. In short, for many polls, you can not trust the results as anything more than opinions, which can not get projected to the universe of voters.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/2938080886449362778\/posts\/default\/6342953707996672991"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/2938080886449362778\/posts\/default\/6342953707996672991"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/truedollarjournal.blogspot.com\/2020\/10\/2020-presidential-election-true-dollar.html","title":"2020 Presidential Election True Dollar Journal Forecast. Donald Trump Wins. Biden Runs Against the Wrong Opponent and Loses. "}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Unknown"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-qOxGI04Z10A\/X5ZCAFXPGwI\/AAAAAAAA3pU\/7l60oQ17SjIf40w5nNtI14dsX-cqrRXUQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-w640-h436-c\/25-Oct-2020-23%253A08%253A51.070097-04%253A00.png","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2938080886449362778.post-8725742395609150907"},"published":{"$t":"2020-09-18T12:31:00.004-07:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-09-18T12:49:08.423-07:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"2020"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"2020 Presidential Election"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Donald Trump"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Joe Biden"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Pedo Joe Biden"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"President Trump"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"presidential election"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Senile Joe Biden"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Biden Wins in One of the Greatest Electoral College Drubbings in History!  Statewide Polls Are Wrong Because Pollsters Do Not Know How to Do Scientific Polling"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-t7N20iDttBo\/X2UKmNxU_HI\/AAAAAAAA3jU\/f1PZQ0kf-wwpffTzO5zn3_iuQLyJbpKdwCLcBGAsYHQ\/image.png\" style=\"clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg alt=\"\" data-original-height=\"1200\" data-original-width=\"1200\" height=\"240\" src=\"https:\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-t7N20iDttBo\/X2UKmNxU_HI\/AAAAAAAA3jU\/f1PZQ0kf-wwpffTzO5zn3_iuQLyJbpKdwCLcBGAsYHQ\/image.png\" width=\"240\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EForget national polls. National polls are wrong, always, because such polls are unscientific. I have explained that truth in these two articles:\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cul style=\"text-align: left;\"\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/truedollarjournal.blogspot.com\/2020\/06\/well-it-is-election-time-again-and-fake.html\"\u003EWell It is Election Time, Again, and Fake News USA Today Is Touting an Unscientific National Poll Claiming Trump is Behind, Again. When Will They Ever Learn?\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/truedollarjournal.blogspot.com\/2016\/02\/why-every-presidential-election-poll.html\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EWHY EVERY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION POLL FOR 2016 YOU SHALL SEE OR HEAR WILL BE WRONG\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EYet, if you go by statewide polls, you are forced to believe that fast-slipping into senility, Joe Biden, not only is going to win the 2020 USA presidential election, but also he is going to pull off a win by one of the greatest margins of victory ever in the electoral college.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E \u003Ciframe height=\"370\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vSZpQ_9BdQDZ2eJcB_jHHx5hgwsEkAlIjP8uJFgodj8hTMB3R1PHVJG3XJtHKsp_TyWNFa-31AiCRsZ\/pubhtml?gid=519030480\u0026amp;single=true\u0026amp;widget=true\u0026amp;headers=false\" width=\"640\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E \u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EToday, I set up a clever spreadsheet that takes the average of statewide polls for any state that has polls reported to \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/epolls\/latest_polls\/pres_general\/\"\u003EReal Clear Politics' Latest 2020 Presidential Election Polls\u003C\/a\u003E. The spreadsheet assumes a clear winner where no polls exist, e.g., Trump takes Idaho, Biden takes Hawaii, based on well-accepted beliefs about how voters in particular states lean.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EWhile my spreadsheet is flawless, I can not believe the state polls lack flaws. The pollsters must be\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003Eover-sampling in the biggest cities like Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Detroit and Philadelphia while failing to sample rural and suburban voters in the states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania, respectively.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003EStatewide polls suffer from nearly the same flaws national polls. Pollsters who fail at nationwide polls do so because they fail to account for the electoral college. The US presidential election is not one election but many.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003ETo do statewide polls properly requires dividing up a poll for any state into two polls, one sampling the urban people, the other sampling everyone else, i.e., the suburban and rural folk. Thus for any state, at least\u0026nbsp;\u003Cspan\u003E\u0026nbsp;752 people need to be polled from two different sample sets, taking 376 from each, to get a margin of error of plus or minus 5% to trust that 95 times out of 100 working from the same questionnaire will give alike results.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cspan\u003EThat no polling firm does this tells you their polls are merely a non-statistical collection of opinions of respondents that can not be projected to the universe it is supposed to represent.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cspan\u003EPresident Trump eked out wins in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan in 2016. Had pollsters completed proper, scientific surveys, they would have known this before November 8, 2016.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cspan\u003EThis picture says it all:\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cspan\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cspan\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-2akNujDx32Y\/X2UOocdJtiI\/AAAAAAAA3jg\/hLerRvrrN981TnAPNwKsjk-zsEi0oFmCQCLcBGAsYHQ\/s1071\/18-Sep-2020-15%253A45%253A38.339508-04%253A00.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"653\" data-original-width=\"1071\" height=\"390\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-2akNujDx32Y\/X2UOocdJtiI\/AAAAAAAA3jg\/hLerRvrrN981TnAPNwKsjk-zsEi0oFmCQCLcBGAsYHQ\/w640-h390\/18-Sep-2020-15%253A45%253A38.339508-04%253A00.png\" width=\"640\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cspan\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cspan\u003EThe pollsters failed to sample randomly and in sufficient amount from all of those rural and suburban counties from where 1.4 million voters came and voted for President Trump. They failed because they do not how to do scientific polling in spite of that being upon what they stake their firms' businesses and reputations.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E \u003Ciframe height=\"480\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vSZpQ_9BdQDZ2eJcB_jHHx5hgwsEkAlIjP8uJFgodj8hTMB3R1PHVJG3XJtHKsp_TyWNFa-31AiCRsZ\/pubhtml?gid=194278715\u0026amp;single=true\u0026amp;widget=true\u0026amp;headers=false\" width=\"640\"\u003E\u003C\/iframe\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/2938080886449362778\/posts\/default\/8725742395609150907"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/2938080886449362778\/posts\/default\/8725742395609150907"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/truedollarjournal.blogspot.com\/2020\/09\/biden-wins-in-one-of-greatest-electoral.html","title":"Biden Wins in One of the Greatest Electoral College Drubbings in History!  Statewide Polls Are Wrong Because Pollsters Do Not Know How to Do Scientific Polling"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Unknown"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/-t7N20iDttBo\/X2UKmNxU_HI\/AAAAAAAA3jU\/f1PZQ0kf-wwpffTzO5zn3_iuQLyJbpKdwCLcBGAsYHQ\/s72-c\/image.png","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2938080886449362778.post-4300052301887624036"},"published":{"$t":"2020-06-30T14:10:00.004-07:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2020-07-05T17:17:41.175-07:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Donald Trump"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Well It is Election Time, Again, and Fake News USA Today Is Touting an Unscientific National Poll Claiming Trump is Behind, Again. When Will They Ever Learn?"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003EA couple of dopey writers at that USA Today, Susan Page and Sarah Elbeshbishl have produced yet another piece of propaganda from the Clown World of fake news.\u003C\/font\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-GwjM4GpGkAc\/Xvv9inNZloI\/AAAAAAAA3X8\/6eyRoKdFnLItEVN8VEOU1mwpeqhR6_WXgCK4BGAsYHg\/s649\/groundhog%2Bday%2Belection%2Bseason%2B46uicn.jpg\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"385\" data-original-width=\"649\" height=\"298\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-GwjM4GpGkAc\/Xvv9inNZloI\/AAAAAAAA3X8\/6eyRoKdFnLItEVN8VEOU1mwpeqhR6_WXgCK4BGAsYHg\/w500-h298\/groundhog%2Bday%2Belection%2Bseason%2B46uicn.jpg\" width=\"500\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/font\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003EAs I wrote in my work and published on February 11, 2016,\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/truedollarjournal.blogspot.com\/2016\/02\/why-every-presidential-election-poll.html\"\u003EWHY EVERY PRSIDENTIAL ELECTION POLL FOR 2016 YOU SHALL SEE OR HEAR WILL BE WRONG\u003C\/a\u003E, I explained how scientific public opinion polling works for presidential elections. I should know, I once worked as the Director of Public Opinion and Marketing Research at a mid-market newspaper after having studied the subject of advertising and marketing research while working upon my master's degree under the famous ad man, Harry Darling, while having matriculated at the S.I. Newhouse School of Public Communications of Syracuse University.\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003EThe screenshot reveals all that you need to know why the USA Today's \"exclusive poll\" is wrong. All they have done is ask the opinions of 1,000 people, which can not be projected to a universe of voters.\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-ZMPZomOb0PY\/XwJtloACQ1I\/AAAAAAAA3cQ\/85Z4iQHzAaE8gYRclHXNY1jODj_d1Ei9ACK4BGAsYHg\/s672\/usa%2Btoday%2B77WEevC.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"88\" data-original-width=\"672\" height=\"83\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-ZMPZomOb0PY\/XwJtloACQ1I\/AAAAAAAA3cQ\/85Z4iQHzAaE8gYRclHXNY1jODj_d1Ei9ACK4BGAsYHg\/w625-h83\/usa%2Btoday%2B77WEevC.png\" width=\"625\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003ESo why is the USA Today's poll unscientific and hence useless, well, I will quote myself at length:\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003EPollsters use a totally wrong, unscientific method. Typically, they survey between 700 and 1,000 people chosen randomly. Let's say these 1,000 people get chosen by equal distribution, that is, 20 in each state.\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003ENo one can project the results from a mere 20 persons to the universe of voters in any state. Thus, the number of surveys completed would be too small. Every statistician worth his salt should know this truth.\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003EHowever, there is a far more damning reason why you should denounce all polls being foisted upon you. Because of the electoral college, the presidential election is fifty eight (58) separate elections and requires 58 surveys for full coverage to predict the full results. An accurate poll must account for the electoral college since presidential election doesn't get decided by the popular vote.\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003EThere is one election in each of 48 states that have winner-take-all elections for the electoral college electors and one more for the District of Columbia. Two states, Maine and Nebraska, lack winner-take-all elections. Those states combine for nine elections.\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003EIf a pollster did not need to account for the electoral college, to get a margin of error ± 4% would require 784 completed surveys at the 95% confidence level. Yet, because a presidential election is 58 separate elections and not one, proper polling requires 58 polls, each with 784 completed questionnaires for a margin of error of ±4%. That's 48 polls for the all-or-nothing states and nine polls for each electoral district of Maine and Nebraska.\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003EFor results that have a margin of error ±4% at the 95% confidence anyone surveying would need to complete 45,472 surveys and all on the same day! Otherwise, you don't have a scientifically conducted poll with results that can get projected to the universe of voters.\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003EThe math: 784 surveys × 58 = 45,472\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003ESo for the USA Today's survey, to be scientific and to hit their claimed goal of a margin of error of ±3% at the 95% confidence level, the fake news liars at the USA Today would have needed to survey 65,424 people! Those people could not be merely anyone. They would need to be qualified as likely voters by a method, say, registered since the last election.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cblockquote style=\"border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;\"\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align: left;\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: arial;\"\u003E\u003Cb\u003ESo the USA Today is short only by 64,424 completed surveys!\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003EIn my cited work, I go through a method, which reduces the needed number of completed surveys based on tallying up electoral college votes to each candidate as enough states get canvassed completely. In the work, I showed how the 2012 election could have predicted the Obama election with 9,000 completed surveys. Still, that is a monumental undertaking to complete 9,000 surveys by random telephone calls all done on the same day and during the same day parts. One would need about 900 survey callers and be willing to pay about $130,000 in wages only to publish one article shown one day that will be read by few hundred thousand people at most given the USA Today's circulation woes these days.\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003EThe entire purpose of these fake polls by fake news is to give a fake context upon which to write a story praising and promoting the favored candidate, in this case, Joe Biden, while discouraging the would-be voters of the candidate not wanted by the backers of the fake news, the globalist billionaires. After all, if your preferred candidate is losing, why would you bother to show up to vote?\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003EThese kinds of deceptive practices by fake news ought to be criminally illegal and land people in prison to serve lengthy prison sentences.\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cfont face=\"arial\"\u003E\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/font\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/2938080886449362778\/posts\/default\/4300052301887624036"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/2938080886449362778\/posts\/default\/4300052301887624036"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/truedollarjournal.blogspot.com\/2020\/06\/well-it-is-election-time-again-and-fake.html","title":"Well It is Election Time, Again, and Fake News USA Today Is Touting an Unscientific National Poll Claiming Trump is Behind, Again. When Will They Ever Learn?"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Unknown"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-GwjM4GpGkAc\/Xvv9inNZloI\/AAAAAAAA3X8\/6eyRoKdFnLItEVN8VEOU1mwpeqhR6_WXgCK4BGAsYHg\/s72-w500-h298-c\/groundhog%2Bday%2Belection%2Bseason%2B46uicn.jpg","height":"72","width":"72"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2938080886449362778.post-931507484302825831"},"published":{"$t":"2017-04-12T11:17:00.003-07:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2017-04-12T11:17:34.234-07:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"demographics"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Donald Trump"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"elections"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"President Trump"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"strategy"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"USA"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"MAKE AMERICA GREAT, THE TRUMP STRATEGY, THE FUTURE OF REPUBLICAN PARTY AND THE FUTURE OF THE USA"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/i.imgur.com\/DyjjbBw.jpg\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/i.imgur.com\/DyjjbBw.jpg\" width=\"640\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EToday, \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.breitbart.com\/big-government\/2017\/04\/12\/internal-blm-memo-leaked-trumps-plan-make-america-great-expediting-oil-gas-production-increasing-border-security-creating-jobs\/\"\u003EPenny Starr of Breitbart News reported about a leaked memo from the Bureau of Land Management\u003C\/a\u003E, which stated the strategy for winning by the Trump administration is a focus on sovereignty, safety and growth. The stated tactics to achieve Trump's strategy include energy independence, controlled borders, no multi-lateral treaties, resource stewardship and conservation, capital-intensive domestic jobs, the family.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EShould Trump achieve his design for the USA, Trump will be hailed among the better presidents and perhaps the best Republican since Coolidge.\u0026nbsp;Interestly, perusing such a strategy, Trump will do something substantial for the Republican Party. His actions will lock in the married vote.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EThe rather smart Steve Sailer had insight way back in 2004. I\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.vdare.com\/articles\/democrats-recoil-from-gops-electoral-secret-marriage-plus-children\"\u003En \u003Ci\u003EHappy White Married People Vote Republican, So Why Doesn`t The GOP Work On Making White People Happy?\u003C\/i\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E, Sailer revealed that marrieds carry presidential political victories. Sailer stated,\u0026nbsp;\u003Ci\u003E\"In short, Republicans do well among people who get married and stay married.\"\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/i\u003EIn a 2013 work titled, \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/isteve.blogspot.com\/2013\/12\/the-economist-finally-discovers.html\"\u003EThe Economist Finally Discovers the GOP's Marriage Gap (But For Women Only)\u003C\/a\u003ESailer revealed, \u003Ci\u003E\"The GOP's marriage gap is 77% as large among men as among women, which suggests the GOP's problem is less women than singleness.\"\u003C\/i\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Ci\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/i\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ESailer's insights held true in 2016. \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/anepigone.blogspot.com\/2017\/03\/detailed-demographic-breakdown-of-2016.html\"\u003ETrump won the married vote in 2016 as revealed in a post-election work at The Audacious Epigone\u003C\/a\u003E.\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003ETrump won marrieds (57.2%).\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003ETrump even won over more married women (57.7%) than married men (57.1%).\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003ETrump won married whites (61.2%) and those married of other races (61.2%).\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003ETrump won married white men (61%) \u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003ETrump won married white women (61.4%). \u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003ETrump even won the married Jew men vote (58.8%). \u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EDoing more for those decide to marry and remain married should benefit the Republican party in the future.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EToday, in \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/fact-tank\/2017\/04\/12\/share-of-married-americans-is-falling-but-they-still-pay-most-of-the-nations-income-taxes\/\"\u003EShare Of Married Americans is Falling, but They Still Pay Most of ohe Nation’s Income Taxes\u003C\/a\u003E, \u0026nbsp;Pew Research reported though half of Americans are married, they pay 74% of the taxes. The people footing the bills for the USA would like to get worth for what they pay. Those who pay Congress' tax tab are America's marrieds.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv style=\"font-style: italic;\"\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/2938080886449362778\/posts\/default\/931507484302825831"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/2938080886449362778\/posts\/default\/931507484302825831"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/truedollarjournal.blogspot.com\/2017\/04\/make-america-great-trump-strategy.html","title":"MAKE AMERICA GREAT, THE TRUMP STRATEGY, THE FUTURE OF REPUBLICAN PARTY AND THE FUTURE OF THE USA"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Unknown"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2938080886449362778.post-1369014984219275151"},"published":{"$t":"2017-04-07T12:01:00.000-07:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2017-04-19T11:07:32.806-07:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"2016"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Donald Trump"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"Hillary Clinton"},{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"presidential race"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"AMERICANS REJECTED HILLARY 2.4:1. YET, HILLARY CLINTON DAMNS MEN AS SHE CONTINUES TO LAY BLAME WHY SHE FAILED TO WIN THE PRESIDENCY"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"On Thursday, April 6, 2017, Hillary Clinton blamed misogyny as a reason why she lost the 2016 presidential election. Hillary is dopey lady.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cb\u003EThe majority of Americans weren't buying what Hillary was selling. Americans rejected Hillary 2.4 to 1.\u003C\/b\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/i.imgur.com\/aeEg4ox.png\" imageanchor=\"1\" style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\"\u003E\u003Cimg border=\"0\" height=\"424\" src=\"https:\/\/i.imgur.com\/aeEg4ox.png\" width=\"640\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe majority of Americans are women. The majority of voting-eligible Americans are women. \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/ropercenter.cornell.edu\/groups-voted-2016\/\"\u003EAccording to the Roper Center, Hillary won the overall women's vote\u003C\/a\u003E 54% to 42%.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHowever, 92 million stayed home. In spite of running a vulva-centric campaign, Hillary failed to get more women of that 92 million to vote. How is that misogynistic? Are women self-loathing?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAs well, Hillary won black men (82.7%), Asian men (59.3%), unmarried Jew men (64.1%), unmarried men (51%). How is that misogynistic?\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHillary lost the white vote (58% to 37%). Whites still comprise the majority of Americans and voters. Hillary lost the wisdom vote, those 45 and older (52% to 48%). Hillary lost the hardworking vote, aka those living paycheck-to-paycheck, aka the $50,000 to $100,000 (49% to 46%).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EHillary lost the independent vote (48% to 42%). \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.gallup.com\/poll\/180440\/new-record-political-independents.aspx\"\u003EAccording to Gallup, independents comprise the majority of Americans\u003C\/a\u003E (43% vs 30% Democrats, 26% Republicans).\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ESo what else did Hillary win? Viewing a \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/anepigone.blogspot.com\/2017\/03\/detailed-demographic-breakdown-of-2016.html\"\u003Edetailed demographic breakdown of 2016 US presidential election produced by The Audacious Epigone\u003C\/a\u003E, Hillary won:\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cul\u003E\u003Cli\u003Ethe racist vote (blacks, 86.1%; browns, 67.8%; Jews, 64.8%)\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003Ethe loose morals vote (black single moms, 97.1%; homosexuals, 79.3%; bisexuals, 70.5%)\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003Ethe heathens vote (Mohammadans, 71.6%; Hindu, 66%; other atheists, 68.1%)\u0026nbsp;\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli\u003Ethe loser, beta male vote (unmarried men, 51%)\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C\/ul\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EPresident Trump won the election by selling what others sought to buy and Trump was smart to sell in the right markets. I explained all of that in\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/truedollarjournal.blogspot.com\/2016\/11\/trump-great-mind-builder-why-trump-won.html\"\u003ETRUMP, THE GREAT MIND BUILDER. WHY TRUMP WON AND WHY EVERYONE ELSE TELLING YOU WHY TRUMP WON HAVE IT SO WRONG.\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ETrump won marrieds (57.2%). Trump even won over more married women (57.7%) than married men (57.1%). Trump won married whites (61.2%) and those married oif other races (61.2%).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003ETrump won whites (57.1%), which included white Catholics (54.4%), white women (54.5%), single white men (59%), married whites (61.2%), married white men (61%), married white women (61.4%).\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003EAnd in spite of all the apologist propaganda to the contrary, Hillary failed to win the popular vote precisely because there is no\u0026nbsp;national popular vote. I explained all of that too in\u0026nbsp;\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/truedollarjournal.blogspot.com\/2017\/03\/president-trump-actually-won-required.html\"\u003EPRESIDENT TRUMP ACTUALLY WON THE REQUIRED POPULAR VOTE IN SPITE OF DOPEY CLAIMS TO THE CONTRARY\u003C\/a\u003E.\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/2938080886449362778\/posts\/default\/1369014984219275151"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/2938080886449362778\/posts\/default\/1369014984219275151"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/truedollarjournal.blogspot.com\/2017\/04\/americans-rejected-hillary-241-yet.html","title":"AMERICANS REJECTED HILLARY 2.4:1. YET, HILLARY CLINTON DAMNS MEN AS SHE CONTINUES TO LAY BLAME WHY SHE FAILED TO WIN THE PRESIDENCY"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Unknown"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}]}]}});