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Monday, October 26, 2015

FedEx Execs Expect Record Holiday E-Commerce Shipments. So Should You.

Today, Reuters editors published a work by Nick Carey [ FedEx sees record holiday shipments on rising retail, e-commerce ] who gets the story mostly right. Carey reported that Fedex execs claim they expect a record for shipments becaues of both retail sales and only a "jump" in e-commerce. So, the story is a mix of truth and propaganda.

It's unlikely there will be a significant change in retail sales from Q4 2014 to Q4 2015. As I showed you in The Horrible October 2015 Advance Retail Sales Report Foreshadows a Bad Christmas, Americans are tapped out. Credit as a percent of income has never been higher.

However, e-commerce sales will continue to eat a larger portion of the retail pie. In current dollars, e-commerce sales could hit US$104.6 billion, up from US$93.5 billion in Q4 2014.

Carey quoted Fedex veep, Patrick Fitzgerald as saying, "Each year we face a challenge that's greater and that's driven by ecommerce."

In True Dollars™, you can see the trend. It's clear. Americans have been switching their shopping preferences to their laptops, tablets and shipments from UPS and Fedex.






No one should expect a break in the fourth quarter trend since 1999. That said, a rise in ecommerce sales does not mean the economy is growing.




Here is how Amazon, Wal-mart, Fedex and UPS stack up.