It's unlikely there will be a significant change in retail sales from Q4 2014 to Q4 2015. As I showed you in The Horrible October 2015 Advance Retail Sales Report Foreshadows a Bad Christmas, Americans are tapped out. Credit as a percent of income has never been higher.
However, e-commerce sales will continue to eat a larger portion of the retail pie. In current dollars, e-commerce sales could hit US$104.6 billion, up from US$93.5 billion in Q4 2014.
Carey quoted Fedex veep, Patrick Fitzgerald as saying, "Each year we face a challenge that's greater and that's driven by ecommerce."
In True Dollars™, you can see the trend. It's clear. Americans have been switching their shopping preferences to their laptops, tablets and shipments from UPS and Fedex.
No one should expect a break in the fourth quarter trend since 1999. That said, a rise in ecommerce sales does not mean the economy is growing.
Here is how Amazon, Wal-mart, Fedex and UPS stack up.