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Thursday, December 4, 2014

AT LONG LAST, BANKERS ARE ADVANCING CREDIT

Adding more proof to the reality of the USA economy at long last advancing, True Loans and Leases have begun to advance.

Here is what True Loans and Leases looks like compared to True GDP.



True Loans and Leases is up 3.14% and growing at the yearly rate of 6.6%. As can be seen, from the peak of True Loans and Leases hit during Q4 2007, True Loans and Leases fell -44.7% falling at a rate of -8.4% a year over 6 and ¾ years.

True Loans and Leases has advanced 13.8% of the time over the last 56 years, with 56.7% of the quarters as up quarters and 42.9% of the quarters as down quarters.

Keep in mind that today's True Loans and Leases falls between Q1 1997 and Q2 1997. Americans have far to go to grow to the previous peak GDP. Likely, that growth will take years.

The longest growth streak started by the end of Q1 1994 and ended by Q3 1997 lasting 15 quarters. The longest decline stretch started by Q4 1990 and ended by Q1 1994 lasting 11 quarters.

In THE USA ECONOMY ADVANCE LIKELY HAS BEGUN AT LONG LAST, I show that growing Private True GDP has lifted True GDP growth over the last two quarters.

If you are an investor, whether in the businesses of others or for your own business, it looks like now is the time to undertake capital expenditure for the likely forthcoming consumer advance fueled by an employment expansion over the coming quarters and years.

It would take a war or significant disaster to derail what is shaping up to be an advance at this point.

Even the yield rate curves look positively normal. You can see those in HEY "YIELD CURVE" WATCHERS. TRUE YIELD RATE CURVES LOOK NORMAL.

Now what are bankers going to do with all of those excess reserves.