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ASEAN SPOTLIGHT: MALAYSIA. TRUE GDP. EWM



In spite of hiccoughs, Malaysia is growth story. With 44 years of GDP and cash exchange rate data, measured by quarters, the Malaysian economy has grown 65.1% of the time and has shrunk 34.9% of the time.

The longest growth streak lasted 21 quarters between Q2 2003 and Q2 2008. The longest decline stretch lasted 10 quarters between Q1 1984 and Q2 1986. Take notice that decline stretch happened long ago.

True GDP hit a peak Q2 2008. From the peak to the Q4 2013 low, True GDP declined -6.7% a year, falling a full -31.5% over five and ½ years. 

Since the low from the peak, True GDP has grown 3.5% growing at the yearly rate of 4.9%. However, True GDP is down 29% having fallen at the yearly rate of -5.3%.











After hitting a low in February 1997, True EWM has grown 61.4% from the bottom, growing at a yearly rate of 0.5%. With 18.8 years of data, for 48.9% of the time, EWM has up months and for 50.7% of the time, EWM has down months.

Since the Q3 2007 peak, True EWM has been up half the time, in random walk fashion, growing at a scant 0.1% over 70 months of growth and 16.3 years of data.



ABOUT THE ASEAN

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a political and economic organisation of ten Southeast Asia countries. The six biggest economies comprise the ASEAN SIX — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam. The remaining four countries are Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, and Burma.

With more than US$2.3 trillion combined GDP, ASEAN ranks as the seventh largest economy  behind the US, China, Japan, Germany, France and the United Kingdom. ASEAN has more than 600 million (8.8% of the world's population).

ASEAN FREE TRADE 

ASEAN has free trade agreements (FTA) with China Japan, India, Australia, New Zealand, and , Korea. ASEAN-India bilateral trade crossed the $70 billion target in 2012.

The ASEAN Capital Markets Forum (ACMF) seeks to integrate the stock markets of Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore; harmonize commercial standards; and harmonize commercial regulation.

The ASEAN Single Aviation Market (ASEAN-SAM) is an effort to establish a unified aviation market by 2015. Already, there is visa-free travel for citizens of ASEAN countries.