Menu

Friday, November 14, 2014

POLITICIANS AND TV BLABBER HEADS HAVE LIED TO YOU FOR YEARS ABOUT THE ECONOMY. SEE THE TRUTH.

In THE SECRETS OF AUTOMATED CLEARINGS, GDP AND THE ECONOMY. RECOVERY? WHEN?, I showed you how bank clearings of checkable deposits between two parties strongly correlates with GDP once you remove the effects of inflation. As you know GDP is the measures the economy.



To further show you there hasn't been any recovery, I give you these confirming charts.

Bank credit comprises about 71% of all banking activity as measured by assets bankers declare on their books. Consumer activity comprises 11.1% of all banking activity. Residential realty of both  closed-end residential loans and  bortgage-backed securities comprises 20.6% of all banking activity. Producer activity comprises 22.2% of all banking activity.

Bank credit to Producers consists of Commercial and industrial loans as well as     Commercial real estate loans. Bank credit to Consumers consists of  Consumer loans as well as Revolving home equity loans.




The consumer pictures do not look so good. Since hitting a peak at the end of Q1 2010, true consumer loans have fallen -29.4%, falling at a rate of -5.6% a year.




True Home equity line of credit (HELOC) loans peaked at the end of Q3 2008. Since then, HELOCs have fallen -58.9%, falling at a rate of -13.8% a year.



Combined, true bank credit to consumers peaked at the end of Q4 2007. Since the peak, bank credit to consumers has fallen -43.6%, falling at rate of -12%.



The producer pictures do not look much better. True commercial and industrial loans peaked at the end of Q3 2008. Since then, true commercial and industrial loans have fallen -44.9%, falling at a rate of -9.4% a year.



True commercial real estate loans peaked at the end of Q4 2007. Since then, true commercial real estate loans have fallen -51.8%, falling at a rate of -10.2% a year.




Combined, true bank credit to producers peaked at the end of Q3 2008. Since the peak, true bank credit to producers has fallen -49.6%, falling at rate of -10.8%.

If there is a glimmer of hope, that can be found in true commercial and industrial loans. Since Q4 2011, true commercial and industrial loans have grown 0.6%, growing at an annual rate of 0.2%.

We're living in the 21st century. Politicians need to stop lying about obvious reality. Central bankers and others need to acknowledge their hubris.

Politicians and central bankers don't know what they're doing and they never did. If they did, it wouldn't take six years to fix the economy.

It's quite eye-opening when at long last one grows up only to discover almost all adults mostly lie about everything and many adults are too stupid to know they repeat lies willingly for those who hold power over them.

Fictional-character Gregory House is right. Everybody lies.